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The New England Patriots have been much in the news this off-season with many moves, much promise and some recent poignant concerns. Football is a sport which very much depends on how the team comes together and thus all the real news will begin this Sunday when the Patriots take the field against the New York Jets. These teams are fantastically familiar with each other and have some rather significant grudges to settle. Last year the Jets split the regular season series with the visitor winning each game. The Pats put it to them in the playoffs with Brady not falling for the pressure burst and using precision to pick them apart.
The first game of the year is the hardest to predict where teams have developed from one season to the next and this will be no exception but the rivalry has more than enough firepower even before the inaugural match of the season begins. The head coach pits master and pupil against each other and much as Belichick raided the Jets in his early career, Mangini is doing the same and loading his roster with former Pats players. All of this will have some relevance but the bulk of the story will be told on the field, a Jets home field. Pats hold the off season fanfare but now it's time for the season fanfare: Start Spreading the News if you Want to be a Part of It - New York - New York!
The Jets have added a very much missed running game to their team by signing Bears running back Thomas Jones. After spending much of the pre-season with a calf injury he's ready to crack New England's defense and give Pennington the breaks he badly needed last year. His ability to power and speed rush enables the Jets very accurate short range passer to play action with enough space for his receivers but make no mistake this team wants to be a ground assault group. Ferguson has another year and will be eagerly looking across the line to move bodies and create lanes while the new Captain Laveranues Coles joins Jerricho Cotchery as the Wide Receiver tandem that tore up New England's defense for many yards after catch in the regular season matchups versus New England. Both have speed and moves but their deep threat is somewhat limited by a tendency for Pennington to have too weak an arm to hit them accurately on the deep ball.
Defensively Vilma is the center of a linebacker crew that loaded up a front seven force to harass Tom Brady and limit the ground game. Mangini brought in the 3-4 scheme very successful for the Patriots and thus capable of blitzing from all over the front and confusing an ill prepared Quarterback. Their secondary may be sorely tested as they've made some adjustments from last year including their first round pick Darrelle Revis. This isn't enough if the pass rush of Shawn Ellis doesn't improve but the Jets will risk the blitz to save their weaker secondary and offset the frequency in which they load eight into the box and attempt to play short zones.
Tom Brady was too much for the Jets in the playoffs with a much weaker line-up and now he's loaded with weapons. His top receiver of last year is now a cast-off picked up by the Jets (Caldwell) and Randy Moss, Dante Stalworth and Wes Welker premier as the top three receivers. This group can get legitimately deep and the Jets will have to pay much more attention to how they approach this group or give up many big play passes. While the entire offense has an edge on the Jets Defense, this is particularly true when Brady opts to pass against the Jets. The plan is always to throw the ball to the open receiver and with Moss and Stalworth excellent deep threats, Welker with his shifty quick cuts may benefit over the middle while softening up the linebackers for the Pats ground assault behind speedy and healthy Maroney. Add to this the early season match and resulting lack of game film and the offense will have an edge on the defense which will make it a difficult day for Jets defenders.
Defensively the Patriots are likely to be aware that Chad Pennington doesn't get the ball deep very well and thus play shorter zones from which their potent front seven can attempt to wreak havoc by punishing runners and the receivers who dare take short routes. Even without hard hitting Harrison to punctuate this crew, there are hitters aplenty and New England always prefers to scheme against a weakness and Pennington's arm is just such a weakness.
Defensively Samuels hasn't been around for the pre-season and thus hasn't had time to build chemistry with the secondary. This is particularly pivotal in a secondary which will lack the leadership of Rodney Harrison. A few mistakes in passing off receivers could leave a receiver open that even Pennington can hit deep or it could allow for the missed tackles and long Yards After Catch which heralded both of the regular season matches.
Another absence, Richard Seymour, will inspire the Jets to test his replacement against behemoth Ferguson and Thomas Jones as the Jets attempt to control the ball on the ground. While Jarvis Green is no slouch, the line depth is particularly weak and fatigue is always a challenge early in a season, especially when you can be the target of a punishing ground attack directed at you as will no doubt be an option for the Jets.
New England's offense will react to the Jets approach as game time adjustments are a strength of the Patriots. They'll have an initial desire to let Maroney test the running lanes but if the Jets want to stack up too much then it will quickly be time to let Tom Terrific test the new tools in his arsenal via Moss and Stalworth deep. As soon as the Jets back off the safeties the Patriots will employ the short game with Welker and Maroney. Should the blitzes mount up then the Pats will show why they practiced so many screens in the preseason and New York will quickly have to back off and try and endure on the strength of Vilma's speed and tackling.
Defensively the Pats will play a short zone trusting their linebackers to make the reed and stuff the run which will be forced out by the play of Vince Wilfork as the stalwart core of a great defensive line only partially impeded by the loss of Seymour. They'll work more out of the base 3-4 with their personnel shortage but Vrabel, Colvin and Thomas give them linebackers who can play like a lineman when any play calls for it. Until and unless Pennington shows his ability to work the ball deep the Patriots will play the punishment game over the middle and work on sure tackling and smooth zone transitions. This won't be without some challenge but will play to the athletic strength of their secondary and the experience strength of their linebackers.
The Jets are going to try a power game running Jones early and often with youngster Leon Washington giving an off speed burst to surprise the Pats should they show signs of fatigue. Pennington will combine that with his accuracy to hit the receivers if the Defensive backs give too much cushion as is often the case in New England's zone schemes. Also watch for the tight end to challenge safeties Sanders and/or Merriweather early.
Defensively the Jets know Tom is dangerous and will mix in their blitzes with zone drops and hope he makes a rare mistake against them when under fire. This strategy worked well on a wet field when cuts weren't possible for the receivers and when Tom's pocket presence had no grip to give him that slide and fire which makes him so dangerous. If the weather is good this may become more zone drops than blitzes and a hope that Maroney isn't healthy enough to punish them nearly as much as Tom and his deadly trio of receivers.
The Patriots are the better team and the Jets didn't close that gap but saw it grow. Certainly there are aspects to exploit on both sides but ultimately there is a good reason Tom is 6-0 at the Jets and there is little reason to expect lucky number 87 isn't far behind. Points will come early and often before Maroney settles the Pats into a more ground control game and lets the defense play with a lead. This enables the Jets to move up and down the field a bit more than many in New England would like but it will come with a price and few points. Thomas may break one late against a tired team but the game won't be as close as New York and Mangini wish if they want the division to be a race.
New England 34 - New York Jets 16
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Scarlet Letter and a Lightning Bolt Ignites Patriotic Victory
Unless you live under a rock you are likely aware that the New England Patriots have endured a week focused upon their use of a camera to record Jets defensive signals. Stealing signals is a regular and allowed practice in the NFL but doing so using video cameras is expressly forbidden and the guilty verdict finally arrived on Thursday with some hefty penalties for the Pats. The Pats are guilty and a nation vastly eager and ready for a reason to bemoan the Pats has leaped upon this and is putting it to the "Cheaters" while questioning all of the wins in the Bill Belichick era. With signal stealing an admitted part of most NFL teams, the impact of this process is minimal but the Scarlet Letter C for Cheater is now emblazoned across the Patriots and attached to every significant win of the recent teams. Those more knowledged in the game cite the low impact of such things but the deliberate, belligerent and stupid choice of the Patriots has opened them up to the outcry. They cheated and the impact will no doubt serve to supply many with reasons to believe this is all that has made the Patriots and those folks are in for a very rude awakening. The New England Patriots are quick to tell you why they have won games: hard work, preparation and execution. These players know they did not cheat even if the organization is guilty of such and now they're work is tarnished which will serve to incite them. All week long a domination of the Divsion rival Jets on the Jets home turf has been overshadowed by the outcry even though the camera was confiscated in the first quarter and could have had no impact on the game. These players are eager for football, clearly focused on San Diego and ready to show the world that this rejuvenated New England roster is up to the challenge..
Meanwhile the Chargers who endured a home playoff loss to the Patriots which they still haven't accepted, decided that their comments from last year weren't enough to inspire these Patriots. Last year some of the Patriots took an immature response to the taunting they'd received all pre-game and during the game from an arrogant and talent laden Charger team. These players danced and mocked the Lights Out dance on the middle of the Chargers home field after the victory. Inappropriate even while the reasons for those feelings is understood. The Chargers responded with a verbal volley having fallen short on the field. QB Phillip Rivers called Ellis Hobbes the worst corner in the league which was a stretch given the poor performance Rivers had shown against him. "LT" told the world he was classy, a sure fire proof he isn't. He whined about the classless Patriots and that it was no surprise given their head coach. At least he later softened a bit and given the frustration and depression of the loss some of these words are understandable. However, just in case anyone thought LT was erudite or classy, he charged up the headlines this week by announcing his version of the Pats Mantra: "If you aren't cheating, you aren't trying." All pro linebacker Shawn Merriman added his notion that the cheating is why the Pats beat them in the championship game. No doubt he missed that they intercepted the ball to win the game if only they were disciplined enough to fall on the interception rather than being careless and giving the ever-hustling and always clutch Troy Brown a chance to knock the ball loose and give New England the additional chance it would need to win the game - which was accomplished. An angry and talented Pats team now has bulletin board material to fire up their ire a bit further. This is a team which has historically thrived on such things and are no doubt preparing to demonstrate to everyone the validity of their ability with a potent demonstration on a team which is widely thought of as an AFC Powerhouse.
The Chargers remain vastly unchanged from last season on the field which is a credit tot he organization since they are talent laden and have considerable depth. Eleven pro-bowlers was vastly legitimate though Rivers ahead of Brady was clearly an error of significant proportions. Off the field there is an entirely new coaching chart and discipline is apparently not a strength of Norv Turner as he's allowed his team to lose focus on the game and concentrate on their jibes against their begrudged rivals. He better hope he pulls that discipline together a bit on the field or it could become a long afternoon some 2500 miles from their home.
The Pats hold the series edge 17-13-2 as well as that hard fought victory last January in the Divisional Playoff round. Despite that, the Chargers have dominated in the Tomlinsen era and boast the title of having ended New England’s NFL record Home Winning streak. All of that history will only be fuel to the fire and preparation for Sunday Night when the Cameras will be rolling to show who is the real AFC Powerhouse in the Sunday Night battle.
Offensively the Chargers thrive on their ground game. It is the key to making the entire offense and team successful. LaDanian Tomlinsen certainly deserves top consideration as the most talented back in the game. He has all the essential qualities with size and strength to run in the middle, speed and moves to run outside. He's a constant threat to break a long run that ends in a touchdown. The Patriots, in fact, have yet to contain him in any game. His 'back-up' is Michael Turner a speed burner who can similarly torch a weary defense while giving LT a few moments of breather. As if this wasn't enough, the duo is led by an enormous offensive line with significant seasoning time together. They are road graders who can and do open respectable holes on a consistent basis for the benefit of Turner and Tomlinsen. Worse still, Tomlinsen has a knack for tossing touchdowns as well when opposing teams concentrate too much on containing him and he's done it as recently as last week to get his team onto the scoreboard in a 3-0 game. If that isn't quite enough he hauled in 7 passes which put him second on the list behind the Chargers next biggest threat.
Antonio Gates is the top tight end in the league with great size and an excellent ability to use his body to make athletic catches while shielding off generally less athletic linebackers. He will convert tough third downs and break long gains when teams again must focus on Tomlinsen. Phillip Rivers is not a fantastic quarterback but with the strength of the ground game and a pair of security blankets in Gates and Tomlinsen, his talent seems to rise significantly in most games. Despite this his wide receivers are frequently neglected as a sign of the talent challenge at QB and WR. They are not poor but are certainly not the special talents of the ground game and Gates.
Defensively the Chargers play a 3-4 defense with an all pro at nose tackle, Jamal Williams , and outside linebacker. Shawn Merriman who is a ferocious pass rusher. Their entire front seven is tremendous and can stop up the run while throwing assorted blitz and rush options to pressure Brady as they did often last year. They have size, speed and strength enough to certainly help the offensive line of the Patriots receive a real litmus test of their talents which undoubtedly seemed better last week based on a vastly inferior front seven. This unit especially benefits from the bal control offense of the Chargers which keeps them well rested and frequently playing with a lead which enables them to attack the opposing QB more fervently.
The secondary of the Chargers is not as solid although Quentin Jammer has good size and has developed generally very well while safety, Marlon McCree , having a solid game against the admittedly weak Bears offense.
The Patriots had enough offense to limp past the Bolts in last year's battle but this year they've powered up that offense dramatically. Tom Brady now has a full arsenal of receiving talent and will far more significantly challenge the Chargers. Add in the significant game film on this team which has changed little and Brady's studies should help him pick apart the secondary with all the quick throws necessary. Undoubtedly the Chargers saw Moss' demonstration but they have only begun to realize the talents of Stallworth and Gaffney in reserve. Welker is a known as is Watson when the teams ease off on the tight end. In fact Watson and Faulk on Screens will be a challenge to this Colts team and Maroney is a totally different player than they saw in the playoffs. Despite all this offensive firepower, the key is still Tom Brady and his great depth and dearth of receivers to challenge one of the weaker points of the San Diego Chargers: the secondary.
Antonio Thomas has joined the Patriots and while he doesn't constitute an edge over Antonio Gates, he significantly reduces a prior edge and given Gates injury this weak, the fast and physical linebacker may prove to be the deciding factor in a prior edge. His work to limit Gates will ramp up the pressure on Rivers and that's not what the Chargers will prefer.
Coaching is a lop sided affair as well with the newly brought in Turner staff still forging their team against a highly motivated Belichick staff. The mismatch is there even before the motivational outrage of the last week arrives and Belichick is the master of shutting down an opponents strength and exploiting the weakness.
LT owns the Patriots in a fashion similar to Mike Shannahan's great success against the Pats. He routinely dismantles them with explosive runs and this time faces a Pats unit without Richard Seymour and a shoulder hobbled replacement in Jarvis Green. The Pats have a solid front seven but not compared to the challenge ahead of them with their current personnel. This is a solid edge and undoubtedly the focus of the game plan for New England.
Antonio Gates remains the threat to get first down conversions and touchdowns. Thomas is going to close the gap but Gates has an edge if his health is solid. The use of a safety to help Thomas means that opens a bit on the run from Thomas' distraction and a bit on the pass from the additional help over the top. Gates will probably get his catches and the hope is to limit and contain them for the most part.
The Bolts front seven is that dynamic and will pose problems for a New England ground game which survived well enough against the Jets fare but will be extra challenged against this active group. Certainly there are yards to be gained but they will not be as great as against many foes and if the running game must be relied upon to take pressure off Brady it could lead to many third and long situations which plays into yet another strength when this team can convert into full pass rush mode.
Expect the New England Patriots to first ensure the pressure is off Tom Brady in the pocket. He will use a lot of Shotgun formations as well as hurry up formations that enable him to see the pressure, know the defense and capitalize on the superior receiving talent. Screens and draws will supplement the true talent of finding the open receiver which will be Welker and Watson often if the Bolts put attention to Moss. Stallworth is not the forgotten man and he'll benefit if the others get too much attention - especially since he'll have the softer corner. The notion is spread the field with the receivers and then let Maroney and Morris find the holes that open when the linebackers start stepping back to manage the passing lanes. By that point Tom has more time to throw and look for the deep ball as well as for the ground game to set up his play action.
Defensively the Patriots will absolutely key on Tomlinsen and Turner. They know they must stay home in their lanes and zones as well as make the sure tackle. Gang tackling is fine and in high demand but not by having corners and safeties come off routes and leaving big plays for the surprise throw from Tomlinsen. They want to force Rivers to beat them and they want him to do it consistently so that Gates or whomever will take a punishment and risk the ball hawking of Hobbes (the leagues 'worst corner') or Samuels to make a big play that changes the game. Chargers playing from behind puts more pressure on Rivers and more assuredly gives New England an edge.
San Diego will give New England their diet of Tomlinsen and Turner until the line can show they are up to the challenge. They will especially attack the left side where they know the Pats miss Seymour even with the outstanding performance of Jarvis Green last week. Green is ailing as are all the Pats backups at this position and wear and tear of a big line and owerful backs will challenge Colvin, Bruschi and Green to make plays. Ever watchful of how Gates is handled in these situations, the Bolts use him for third down as well as getting their backs into the flat to match Tomlinsen up on the outside with a corner. They feel Assante's tackling is a challenge point and with the ability to run inside and bounce it out there may be many challenges for the corners and safeties.
Defensively they want pressure on Brady. They want it with four rushers which means one of the linebackers tearing after Brady but from an always unsuspected location. They'll mix it up and jam the wide receivers hoping to use the pressure to force errant throws and long situations. They are especially strong up the middle with Dan Koppen getting a big challenge in this battle. Moss will get a safeties attention but only after the jam from Jammer and Welker will probably take a linebacker beating as well which means Stallworth might have the first opportunity to shine or fall flat. Bottom line is the Chargers don't want to lose to the tandems they've seen (Welker and Moss) and trust their pressure to shorten Tom's range of passing options.
This is one peeved Pats team and one talented team as well. The Pats will move the ball early and often while their defense throws Tomlinsen for a loss much of the game. The fresh rotation at linebacker lets them beat down on the run and keep fresh legs on Gates as well. The Chargers will get their yards but not in the way they most want it and Rivers makes too many mistakes when the pressure is put on him. Pats grab three turnovers to shock the Chargers in a game that never slips towards the Bolts momentum. It isn't entirely there fault, Belichick and crew were going to punish someone for this week and they just have so much more to prove. The Chargers still think they won last year and don't realize how much work it would take for that win.
New England Patriots 34 - San Diego Chargers 10
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The Patriots have been dominating the Bills for some time and when a 2-0 team meets an 0-2 team seemingly heading in opposite directions, there is little reason for hype in the game. The Patriots Players, however, have turned full attention to the Bills and their own preparations for the Bills which is why they generally are a highly winning franchise at present. New England has swept the season series three consecutive times and won 12 of the last 13 contests. Buffalo last beat New England in the Milloy-game to open the 2003 season. They last won in New England back before the Ocean drank Atlantis – or during Bellichick’s inaugural season of 2000.
The games have been notoriously close, however. Last season the Pats won by a safety (19-17) after starting the game with a sack of Tom Brady by Takeo Spikes which was returned for a touchdown. The non-auspicious start was certainly part of the challenge but Buffalo has generally found a way to halt New England’s offense as they did for most of that day.
Buffalo’s offense has been woeful and their outspoken, and seemingly under-talented, Quarterback has suggested the Coaches need to open up the offense earlier in games. Other than Marshawn Lynch it might be better to suggest turning on the offense first but if Losman means throwing the ball deep he better be aware the pressure he’ll be under and his penchant for folding under such pressure. Loseman has thrown five interceptions and 1 touchdown in his four games playing against New England. Speedy Lee Evans has been very little factor but speed is plentiful in the Bills receivers though nothing of the Moss category. The challenge for Buffalo is protecting their Quarterback long enough for his inconsistent arm to make a disciplined read and throw. They’ve attempted to shore up that deficiency with rookie Lynch who has been flashy impressive while averaging 4.2 yards per carry on an offense that has been second to last in yards in the league.
Defensively the Bills have had their challenges as well. Denver marched up and down the field but consistently had to settle for field goals while Pittsburgh was stymied for most of the game before two late touchdowns broke the game open. The key is that the Bills have managed to be somewhat stingy in the red zone and that’s a pertinent detail. They do allow 5 yards on the ground and have had their opponents nearly double their first down tally and more than double their yard tally. They have good speed on defense but their health is suspect at present with much inexperience to be exploited.
Listing these seems almost unreasonable given the severity of the disparity of these teams. The Pats have a dominating offense, a stifling defense and seem to hold all the intangibles. In a somewhat novel approach I’ll list the full match up edges as follows:
Pats Offense versus Bills defense – Edge Pats
Brady and wideouts versus secondary of Bills – Extreme Pats Edge
Maroney, Morris and O-line versus Bills Run defense – Pats edge
Pats Defense Versus Bills Offense – Severe Pats edge
Losman and wideouts versus New England Secondary – Pats Edge
W/ Pressure as factor – severe Pats edge
Lynch and Bills O-line versus Pats front 7 – Pats edge
This exceedingly lopsided Match-up will have the Bills very challenged on all fronts with the Pats even having a solid Kick Return game. The only area not falling to the Pats would be the initial match-up weakness listed below.
Return man Terrance McGee (not Bobbie) is very capable and Pats better put an emphasis onto special teams if they wish to ensure no surprise scores enter into the final equation. Meanwhile Buffalo does have a motivated special teams crew which has a large motivation in coming together after the serious injury to their own lost player, Kevin Everett. severely injured in the opening kickoff of the season.
Nothing to lose approach. Buffalo does not have an edge in many factors if any versus New England and they are a desperate team which means they can afford to take desperate risks. That makes them somewhat dangerous. All the expectations lie upon New England to dominate the game which is certainly reasonable but look for tricks and gadgets from Buffalo to try and put up some surprise points. It’s a weak edge and a risky proposition but facing their situation it may be all they have as a reasonable approach.
The Bills know they need to run effectively to give Losman any chance of time to throw the ball well when called upon. They have the talented back but know the New England front seven is extremely talented and generally can stay very well rested with high quality depth at all positions. The possible exception to that is the depth at Defensive End and Jarvis Green in particular. Lynch is quick to the hole and has a n ice juke step to try and break it outside which they will no doubt attempt fairly regularly when the score of the game allows (ie not a significant Pats lead).
Losman may get his attempts to throw deep eventually but they’ll first try to attack the Pats in the short range and especially with the tight end and middle routes that the bend but don’t break approach often allows. New England has some fluctuation at Safety and that middle coverage was the most suspect against both New York and San Diego. The longer they can run the short game passing and running the more they can keep Brady off the field and the closer the game becomes. Look for the occasional max-protection in a power run situation (short yardage) as a means to attempt to get deep to Evans, Parrish or Reed in a match-up against Hobbes or Samuels when the safeties are brought forth for that running down.
Meanwhile New England wants to preserve balance when possible and this is certainly a team to give the running backs some face time. After using considerable no-huddle and shotgun formations against the fierce pass rush of the Chargers, New England may find home in more conventional personnel and formations as they send a diet of Maroney and Morris at the Bills run defense. The backs alternate series and both should up their average yards per carry and carries per game in this contest. Successful early running will make the Brady play-action even more devastating. Expect near 1520 carries each in this contest which has less need of passing heroics.
When called upon to pass there is no doubt that both Moss and Welker are the known threat commodities. Unfortunately this doesn’t make it easy or likely that either will be stopped but it does open up the notion of Gaffney or Stallworth emerging a bit with single coverage. Similarly Watson got some early feature time to back off the Chargers linebackers and given the run formations likely both Watson and Brady may become early targets to keep the defense honest.
Surprisingly the score may be less dominant offensively as the approach will likely change to more run oriented. Unfortunately for the Bills they lack the offensive firepower to have even that keep them in this game. The Pats once again put a dominating opening drive to score first and cruise through the game fairly readily. Buffalo, in fact, will be challenged to score at all against this Patriot defense but they do manage a pair of field goals around a pair of Losman interceptions that end drives. No room on the ground for Buffalo makes this challenging quickly but Bellichick knows how to exploit mismatches and shut down the strengths of the opposition. With such an edge and the smoldering fuel of recent events, this game will not be as close as many of their past contests.
New England 23 Buffalo 6
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The New England Patriots boast the league’s top offense and top defense. Actually they don’t boast at all and that’s part of the reason for this. This game will, however, test the worthiness of at least the defense and particularly the secondary as the Bengals are a potent offense.
Interestingly the teams faced each other last year on the very same date (October 1) in which the 3-0 Bengals were expected to demolish a depleted Patriots team. The end result should be familiar to Pats fans this year as the Pats took the contest 38-13. Lawrence Maroney burst forth for 124 yards and a pair of touchdowns as the Pats dominated throughout. Now many might suggest the 3-0 Patriots are expected to demolish the Bengals and that hopefully is a lesson into history for the team in preparing for a tough contest. Forget the 7.5 line Vegas is suggesting for the away team Patriots, the team must be prepared for a desperate Bengals team that needs to get more wins fast in a division where Pittsburgh and Baltimore have an early edge and even the Browns are ahead of them presently. Revenge for last season and recent games may be a factor but desperation is a bigger factor and the Pats better strap on chin straps for the best shot Lewis and his band of oft maligned hooligans can deliver.
The Patriots hold the series edge 12-8 as they square off for the 21st time. New England has won 5 of the last 6 with the 2001 loss being the last game before Brady became the Patriots Quarterback (part way through the following Jets game) . The teams have had a bit of hostility and player moves with Corey Dillon now gone, Kelly Washington is the former Bengal representative. Many of the Pats have Ohio roots though but you can bet three bean chili may be out of their minds as they prepare for the Marquee Monday Night Match-up.
Each week it seems some member of the opposition foolishly opens their mouth to inspire the Patriots. Chad Johnson was exceedingly respectful in his opportunities this year but looking back to just post game last year when T.J. Houshmandzadeh pronounced that the Bengals were the better team despite the 38-13 score; and we have this week’s quote to inspire the Patriots. A close second was Palmer announcing he felt the punishment on Bellichick was insufficient given the punishment to Bengals WR Henry for banned substance use.
The Bengals are an inconsistent team and that is their greatest challenge since they have quality talent on offense, defense and special teams. Their core strength is no doubt their offense led by Pro-Bowl Quarterback Carston Palmer. And his outstanding receiver tandem in Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh. Johnson is faster and T.J. is more of the possession receiver. They are missing Chris Henry as their third wide-out as he serves a drug suspension for eight games. They are also missing an injured and recently less effective Rudy Johnson which means the pressure will be on youngster Kenny Watson to play well. He had an impressive burst in his debut against Seattle last week but will be facing a more prepared Patriot defense this week.
Defensively the Bengals have some injuries to slow their linebacking corps but DE Justin Smith is an excellent pass rusher and will be challenging Matt Light. This unit gave up 51 points to the Cleveland Browns and rate at the bottom (27th) in both run and pass defense. No doubt their pride is hurt and they will be ready to showcase the better talent they have in this week’s match but their one gap D-line is well suited for Maroney to exploit and their defensive backs while opportunistic will be hard pressed to handle the many Patriot weapons. They can pick off passes if Brady is careless and will exploit turnovers considerably. In fact their linebackers are skilled at stripping the ball and the team is well ahead of New England at forcing turnovers. Some of that aggression is at the price of discipline and Middle Linebacker Brooks can often be caught out of position in over pursuit which makes lanes for the passing game and big gain opportunities for shifty backs like Maroney.
The Patriots have many advantages to exploit. The Bengals need to run to truly exploit their passing game and they are hurting without Johnson. New England is an excellent run defense and will apply pressure from all over the line on Palmer who much prefers to be throwing deep and intermediate routes than the shorter routes which will punish his receivers. So the significant edge in run defense will force the Bengals into a more lopsided attack which is one that New England can exploit and it seems this is the time when Samuels starts to rev up his interception engine even as Vrabel showcases a high pressure front on the Quarterback. Normally the edge is to the Bengals offense but not in this match-up which is why with their depleted weapons they will work hard for all of their 19 points.
The Patriots are an incredibly talented offensive attack across the board. They have weapons in Moss and Welker which coupled with Brady match or exceed the Bengals tandem but they don’t stop at two with Wwatson, Stallworth, Gaffney, Maroney, Morris and Faulk. They can attack in many ways and as soon as they find a Bengals unit/formation ill suited for their personnel grouping they run the hurry up and exploit their way down the field. New England has entirely too much offensive firepower for the Bengals defense.
That lists the two match up strengths as New England’s offense over Bengals Defense and New England Defense over Bengals offense. That’s not saying much but it actually says a lot and is precisely why this game remains a mismatch of fairly significant proportions. The Bengals are much better than the Bills but still don’t measure up to the Patriot weapons.
Matt Light is having a great year but he absolutely struggles against speed rushers and Justin Smith is as good a speed rusher as he’s faced this year. Smith will beat him on several plays and that means pressure on Brady if the backs miss the pick up. He is the one significant edge from the Bengals defense and he must be addressed if the Patriots don’t want to risk a game changing play such as a sack and fumble.
Palmer has poise and will take the short routes the Patriots like to give him. He’ll always be watching for his opportunity to test the younger safeties deep but will deliver many first downs to T.J. along the way. If Hobbes bites on Johnson’s feints he will get burned deep but more often than not Palmer will be pressured into throwing it away or a risky pass.
The Bengals badly need their run game to support their offense against this defense and it is unlikely to be there for them. Still they must try and as it fails and their dependency on the pass increases they must find a way to get a no name tight end to try and exploit the extra attention given to the two primary weapons. Failing that as is likely, the only hope for the Bengals offense is if New England allows Chad Johnson to get deep as he excels at such and the New England safeties can be caught out of position from time to time.
Defensively the Bengals should clearly see how effective New England is at using a balanced attack. Their only hope is to force New England to ride the run more than the past and make sure enough tackles on first and second down to bring up longer passing situations on third down. Only on longer must pass situations can they hope to ramp up pressure on Brady and flood the shorter reads. This exposes them to the deep ball that New England seems to have found this year but it’s a matter of picking your poison and they may just have the pass pressure from Smith to make that work more often than the times they get burned deep for a touchdown.
New England should be in control during this game. Their offensive attack remains balanced and they ride smoothly over an inferior defense. Let Maroney and Morris pound the ball frequently but remember that Brady in a three wide set is devastating in the air. Balance forces the Bengals to be disciplined, their weakness, and will allow steady gains that control the clock, the scoring and make it easier and easier every drive.
Defensively New England wants their front 7 to stand up against the run. Hobbes gets to manage Johnson and his deep threat while Samuels gets T.J. Both will need help, one with a safety and one with a dropping linebacker or the other safety. The biggest risk is to ensure Johnson doesn’t get deep for a big play score and that means Wilson paying particular attention. Usually the Bengals are not patient and try to punch deep and so New England, the masters of patience, must punish the shorter routes steadily and not let the run game ever get into gear against them.
This is a larger mismatch than some might expect but when the league’s top offense and the league’s top defense, you don[‘t want to be the 1-2 opponent missing a star receiver and star running back while boasting a fairly weak performing defense.
New England 38 (who would pick another number?) - Cincinnati 19
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Romeo Crennell will return to New England and a crowd which well appreciated his contributions to this franchise. He brings along a legendary Patriot in Willie McGinest. Both will get roaring crowd applause though both will be eager to best their former team.
For Bellichick it is always about the present game and thus he’ll harbor little additional motivation in facing old friend Romeo or in battling the franchise which sent him packing in a bitter hate-fest that saw effigies of Bill burned in the streets some 12 years ago.
Romeo is battling for his job and the 2-2 start could readily have been 3-1 but for a blocked field goal against Oakland as the game ended. They are a much improved Browns team this year but their backs are still against the wall despite the solid start. Las Vegas has established a 16 point line which is a solid sign of disrespect for a more talented Browns team than most realize. This is more due to the popularity and publicity of New England thrashing opponents by 100 points in four games. The Patriots have won 5 of the last 6 against the Cleveland Browns but as they prepare for their 21st meeting history will be far less of a factor than the present day match-ups.
Despite having reached the one quarter point of the season, we are not entirely certain on the full nature of either of these teams. The Browns have certainly demonstrated they have impressive offensive potential. The first game of the year was with a Quarterback (Charlie Frye) they have since jettisoned from the roster. That loss is the aberration on their schedule. Derek Anderson in his third year has taken over the starting job and is showcasing more talent than most anticipated he possessed. He’s thrown nine touchdowns (and five interceptions) while amassing almost 100 yards already. Some of the credit is no doubt due to a pair of outstanding weapons in receiver Braylon Edwards and tight end Kellen Winslow. Edwards is averaging a Stanley Morgan like 20+ yards per catch and Winslow is merely in the Moss range at 16+ yards per catch. That type of range will stretch a defense vertically and create promising opportunities for Pro-Bowl talent Jamal Lewis who seems fully healthy again and ready to demonstrate his punishing style that led the league with 2000 yards on the ground not so very long ago. They do not have the precision and experience of Palmer to QB this group but they have better balance in their attack with the superlative laden tight end, despite his separated shoulder which limits his production this season. This offense will put more pressure on the Patriots than any offense to date and that is in part evident by their 51 against Cincinnati and even more so in their 27 points against the vaunted Baltimore Ravens’ defense.
Defensively they are struggling more than a Romeo coached defense would expect. Their roster has several old Patriots who especially anchor the defense such as Big Ted (Mount) Washington at nose tackle at age 39 and he is backed up by once promising back-up Ethan Kelley. Veteran leader Willie McGinest is still performing at OLB/DE for the Browns and has helped them transition to the 3-4 defense. Yet the Browns are ranked 31 in yards allowed which is skewed a bit by the game against the Bengals. Still it is their pass defense which while aggressive and ball hawking, is also vulnerable to speed. They want to mostly jam receivers at the line while their pass rush shortens the time in the pocket and enables their defense to function but a good offensive line will expose their defensive weakness and Romeo is steadily looking for solutions.
There is no doubt that a key strength for the Patriots is matching up their talented offensive line, their speedy receivers and the incomparable Tom Brady of the 2007 season. His line gives him ludicrous time as evidenced by the league low three sacks allowed. His plethora of receiving options have quickness, speed and athleticism to rival any opponent and this leaves Mr. Poise in the Pocket time to pick apart the best of defenses. Cleveland is not the best of defenses and he’ll have the Browns back-pedaling all day.
Derek Anderson has been phenomenal but he’s also thrown interceptions when throwing balls he probably shouldn’t. New England has a ball hawking secondary with far more confusing schemes to challenge the young arm and if he wants to throw too much in this game he may find more completions to the wrong unit now that Assante Samuels is up to speed and the defensive backs of New England are coming off an excellent performance against an elite passing threat.
It is very hard to run against the New England Patriots who employed six men to stop Cincinnati but will have seven in the box this time around. Power runners find it especially difficult to run on the best defensive line in football which is backed by a rotation of well rested and powerful linebackers. Lewis will not find yards easy against this crew which will put more and more pressure upon the passing attack of the Browns.
A talented tight end has always been trouble for the Patriots and given the safety help necessary for Edwards, this will be again a difficult task for the Patriots. Winslow has the opportunity to stretch the seam and score long plays or touchdowns. Harrison isn’t up to speed after his hiatus and the youngsters have yet to respond well to a top talent tight end. Worse still for the Patriots, the Browns can launch a balanced attack that limits New England over emphasizing one aspect as is their want in game planning.
New England will find yards on the ground much more challenging against the Browns front unit. Romeo normally can shut down a running attack with his front seven though given New England’s potent passing attack he may have trouble using this to his full advantage.
The Browns will look to engage in a shoot out as they offensively wish to control the ball, keep Brady and his arsenal off the field and not fall behind in the scoring race. They have the weapons to do this if their balanced attack can use Winslow and Edwards to keep the linebackers and safeties concerned while letting Jamal Lewis pound up steady yardage. New England’s strength has been on first down defense and the Tight End passes will soften that and set up Lewis. If New England chooses to ever stack the line on third and short Cleveland is willing to let Edwards fly. Lewis is more of a straight ahead power rusher but the Pats have been noted for struggling on designed cutbacks and the Browns will intersperse a few of these to catch a linebacker in the wrong hole or in over-pursuit which allows for significant ground gains.
Defensively the Patriots will more commonly need their front seven to play honest and attend the run. Last week six in the box was enough, but not this week against a powerful line and a very powerful back who can handle the full work load. They may let Adelius run with Winslow on occasion but the role of safety help will be generally dispersed there and so the intelligence and patience of the linebackers will be tested. Unlike most tight end attacks of 6-15 yards, Winslow will attack much deeper and much more commonly.
Defensively the Browns want to attack the middle of the pocket. Dan Kopen has an ailing ankle and Ted Washington is a force for anyone to hold back. Forcing Tom out of the pocket is not to the Pats preference and watch for the Browns to do this early and often – especially if Faulk is not the tailback. Faulk has the speed to get outside on this attack but with Maroney injured, Morris and Evans cannot so readily break the speed necessary to get outside this middle pocket pressure. Meanwhile their corners will bump and press the Patriots outside receivers while the safeties take over the top coverage on Moss and Stalworth.
New England will counter this with Welker and Watson as well as using Faulk to break that pressure with a screen or toss sweep. This will slow down the Patriots offensive machine but they are patient and will take what the Browns choose to give, exploiting whatever weakness the defensive options create. That option will be to try and hit Brady more frequently, not let the receivers release for free short routes or deep routes. They will prefer to have Faulk beat them slowly outside rather than Brady doing so steadily with the precision he’s showcased in the first four weeks.
The Browns are the toughest challenge to date given that San Diego wasn’t and isn’t ready for the 2007 season as of yet. Some of the challenges are similar but the Browns have better coaching and better insight which allow them to choose the method of giving New England an edge. This creates a frustrating start for the Patriots who do not overlook the Browns but rather face a tougher test. The Patriots offense is slowed but not stopped and thus the Patriots defense has their best chance to carry the day. They frustrate the youngster early and produce a few turnovers to help make the score higher than it might otherwise have been. This steadily makes the Browns offense more one dimensional and while they hold on for nearly three quarters that deficit exacerbates their errors and new England puts up another impressive outing in reaching 5-0.
New England Patriots 35 - Cleveland Browns 17
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Battle of the Undefeated! Thus is the overly hyped billing of this game by the of NFL pundits heading into week six. Not surprising as two undefeated teams rarely battle in week 6 and both have been statistically potent on both sides of the ball even if their opposition has been called into question. Both teams played down a bit to their competition with the Cowboys faltering more dramatically in their narrow escape from Buffalo on Monday night. Both teams look to face their toughest challenge to date.
The game will be in a raucous Texas Stadium with Brady having never played in the stadium and New England having never won in the stadium (o-4). The teams play each other very infrequently with this marking their tenth meeting. Dallas holds a 7-2 edge although New England won the last two meetings.
The current fact is that these teams are similar in many aspects. Both have a marquis receiver on offense with very talented supporting cast at Tight end and the other receiver options. Both seemingly have top tier talent Quarterbacks and capable offensive lines. They are 1-2 in offensive scoring and the opposite 1-2 in offensive yards. Both have a solid defense which again rate in the top in scoring allowed and yards allowed though the Pats do keep an edge there. Just one year removed from a classic confrontation with Parcells and Bledsoe, these teams have plenty of points to make this the most significant game of the young season. The match-ups are so promising as to be worthy of all the hype even if any reference to Super Bowl previews is ludicrously premature, much like any notion of an undefeated season for either team. The fact is, however, that the latter will be conclusively settled for one team by game’s end.
The Dallas Cowboys are a balanced team with few weak points to exploit. They are likely the class of the NFC despite their near epic implosion in Buffalo. They are atop the league defensively and offensively with a broad array of talent.
Top teams tend to start with a top Quarterback and Tony Romo has shown solid signs of being that top QB. His 16th start is this Sunday which makes him a little raw and inexperienced but he has the poise, confidence and ability to execute solidly and most significantly to improvise with his legs and arm when things break down. He had barely trailed Tom Brady in all QB statistics until his five interception, 1 fumble debacle set him back into the pack a bit. That anomaly aside, he rallied his team with 10 of 14 passing to steal the game as time ran out. That poise will help him grow and it shows the confidence he deservedly keeps. He’s mobile as evidenced by a 30 yard scramble for a first down after a bad snap earlier this year. He can hit Terrell Owens deep, Patrick Crayton or his favorite target, Jason Witten at Tight End. Amongst the biggest lines in the league protects Romo, along with his own athleticism, to make him well protected and able to find time to hit those many targets. Owens and Crayton are a threat to take it to the endzone on any pass play and Owens is certainly a candidate for best receiver in the league. Their double headed running attack of Marion Barber and Julius Jones proved balance and counterpoint to the fearsome passing attack. That passing attack is the strength of the team but the balance is what makes it so potent. They lead the league in offensive yards gained because of the deep passing but will capably dismantle any team which drops extra men into coverage. Speed and power in the backfield, speed at the wideout and speed and power at tight end make them the most potent and complete offense the Patriots have faced all year and probably only behind New England and Indianapolis for offensive firepower.
Defensively the Cowboys start big up front as the 3-4 defense requires. Chris Canty at end is amongst the tallest ends in the league and at 300 pounds will require Brady to be especially aware of throwing lanes. Former Jet Jason Ferguson anchors the nose tackle with an athletic ferocity that belies his 312 pound frame. Lastly Marcus Spears adds another 300+ pound end anchors against the run very solidly. These three can occupy lineman to let their very athletic linebackers carry the game not unlike New England’s defense. DeMarcus Ware at outside is their top pass rusher and has a fast and powerful frame to apply that pressure which is a central point to Wade Phillips defensive strategy. A third Brady will be on the field as Brady James mans the middle with exceedingly fast and athletic prowess. This front seven can and will bring pressure to any unwary team and yet can man the short zones effectively when dropping into coverage. Meanwhile the secondary has reknowned Roy Williams and Ken Hamlin at Safety. Both are extremely sure tacklers, hard hitters and excellent run support but neither are reknowned for playing well in pass coverage. Williams is especially vulnerable when caught in a must cover medium to long range route on a speedy receiver. Corners Henry and Terence Newman are solid with Newman recovering from an injury that has him slightly slowed but still performing well enough to be dangerous.
Finally the Cowboys are well stacked on Special Teams as well. Kicker Nick Folk has great accuracy and tremendous power as he has shown all season but most notably kicking back to back 53 yard field goals with victory or loss hanging on the result of his kick. He’s missed just twice all season His punting counterpart is equally spectacular as Matt McBriar has a better than 47 yard average on his punts with only a single touchback. These two strong kickers ensure a field position edge which Dallas uses to great advantage with their stingy defense and potent offense. On the return side Punts are handled by speedster Patrick Crayton who is averaging over 13 yards per return and is sure handed with generally sound judgment. Kickoff returns fall primarily to Tyson Thompson, one of the largest return men who uses power and speed to run out his 22.7 yard average return.
The Patriots have a substantial edge in spreading the field and attacking Roy Williams with any of their wideouts or even tight end Ben Watson. If the routes are short and kept in front of Williams he is a punisher but he can be beat on cuts and deep if given enough time for the receiver and QB to test him. By no means an easy mark but a weakness for certain.
In conjunction with the Williams targeting must be noted the diverse and potent combination of New England’s full spread offense in the masterful hands of Tom Brady. The best QB in the league is torching every defense and with good reason as his loaded arsenal is too much for anyone with him pulling the trigger. Dallas may stop the Patriots run but they are going to be overmatched handling the Pats passing attack.
Tony Romo is showing all the signs of a fantastic talent but his rawness has shown in many situations and when pressured he over leans on safety blanket Jason Witten. This predictability along with his improvisational tendency for mistakes can lead to turnovers and miscues that give the pats a significant edge. He survived six turnovers against Buffalo but will not survive two against New England.
No doubt the Cowboys hold a strong edge in field position with their punter edge and potent field goal range. As long as they avoid turnovers they will convert field position edge to a scoring edge on too many occasions.
Jarvis green on the Patriots Right Defensive End showed signs of being susceptible to the run. He put extra pressure on linebackers Rosevelt Dcolvin and Tedy Bruschi. The cowboys have massive size on the line, athletic enough guards to get out and a pair of runners who can make tacklers miss. If they follow Cleveland’s mold they may find a notable weakness for the Patriots.
Home field will be a major factor in the intense playoff-like atmosphere of Texas stadium. The crowd will be loud and forceful as long as the Cowboys can stay in the game which makes the edge significant early and very significant in a close game.
Offensively the Cowboys want to avoid the trap ov every opponent thus far. First down yards are essential to ensure third down conversions. The stingy Patriots third down defense is buoyed by those first down stops. Jason Garrett has been brilliant at Offensive Coordinator for the Cowboys and he will mix run and pass effectively with an emphasis on using the run left as long as it is successful. If Jones and especially Barber can attack Jarvis for 4-5 yards per carry on first down they will set up their offense to succeed. They will get TO involved early and often because his performance is essential to their big play scoring against a team in the Patriots who can score quickly as well. Witten remains the security blanket and as long as the Patriots don’t over-emphasize him then he remains a great outlet because his size and speed makes him too much for most defenders. Adelius Thomas if healthy is a solid counter to Witten but motion and play action can give Witten the edge – especially if Crayton and Owens get the Pats safety attention over the top.
The Patriots always try to take away an opponents strength and the Cowboys strength is their passing attack. It has seemed most vulnerable when Romo was under pressure. Pressure cannot be sustained on every down so watch for many linebacker shuffles which send a blitzer from constantly changing linebackers. Especially on third down when the yardage suggests pass the Pats will turn up the pressure while jamming the short zones and giving TO an over the top bonus coverage. In the past they’ve tried putting Assante on Owens straight up but Owens did enough to make them rethink that strategy for the future. No doubt the key and essential match-up for New England is how well Thomas can handle Witten on a regular basis.
The Patriots offense has shown a penchant to use the hurry up shotgun formation which allows the flexibility of Watson, Morris and/or Faulk to force a mismatch on the defense and then run hurried no substitutions packages. Brady then can review the formations and pick the right reads while having the extra time needed from the shotgun. Draws and screens are there to keep the defense attentive to the ground game while the defense must choose whether to singe Moss and risk the first four games of this season or to double Moss and risk brady’s selectrive assaults. Brady looks the safety into the wrong reads better than almost any QB and that is a formula for disaster which usually rewards Watson, Welker and Stalworth..
The Cowboys have seen the benefit of taking Moss out of it and they certainly have the talent to pick one target but that puts added pressure on Roy Williams. They want to push the pressure envelope even further and Russ Hochstein was an apparent weakness at least in run blocking and with more effort at pass blocking. Brady James behind Ferguson will challenge a bit more than prior teams and that leaves DeMarcus Ware to move around and find his lanes of pressure. Of particular note will be when the short side field is opposite the 6’7” wingspan of Chris Canty. That reduces Brady’s lanes and enables extra blitz pressure. Brady is too smart to be easily fooled and thus he must be pressured out of the pocket or into quick throws if the Cowboys hope to thwart drives or get mistakes.
The toughest test for either team is an emotionally laden game. The Cowboys have shown they can handle such but only with the advantage of a constantly failing Bills offense. The Patriots capitalize off turnovers excellently, score more in the first half, by far, than any other team. Theire opening drive scores of every game have led to leads and playing with a lead steadily reduces the role of Barber and Jones thereby putting Romo at risk of pressure and the resulting miscues.
Dallas meanwhile is the hottest scoring second half team, by far, and will likely put up a rally. This time it is late mistakes that let a small New England margin explode into the higher scoring affair for New England. Pats trade Touchdowns for Field goals until the third quarter and then put up their trademark clock eating fourth quarter drive that pushes Dallas into desperation and the miscues of such times.
New England 41 – Dallas 19
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While most of the Football world is handing the Patriots a bye week in Miami, the Patriots are all too aware of their significant misfortunes and missteps in Miami over the years. History has not looked favorably upon Patriot victories in Miami even as the foundations of the Dynasty were already in place. The team needs look no further back than last year when they were shut out in Miami (21-0) with the Dolphins in total control of the game. So for this week, spare the talk of Undefeated Seasons and Super Bowls and irrelevant battles with the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins are even now forming a game plan they believe will make their season by beating New England.
New England has never begun a season with 7 consecutive wins but in trips to Miami they have been frequently foiled as well. They have won only twice in the last seven trips to South Florida and in the early season have one only once in the last forty years! If any defense has invaded Tom Brady near perfectly, it has been the Dolphins who sacked him five times last year in Miami and continually find the means to give him his worst performances. Despite that, New England has won six of the last nine meetings which leaves them in this 81st meeting as the underdog 47-33. It is the only manner in which they will be the underdog from the outside perspective as Vegas has already installed new England as 17 point favorites. New England has struggled to score 23 points in Miami and yet this year they are expected to dominate a struggling and winless Dolphin team which scored 31 against Cleveland last week. So put aside notions of a trap game, the Patriots expect to win but expect it to be a battle and will be ready to do the work necessary to ensure they have the best chance to win this week.
When you have zero wins and six losses in week seven it isn’t hard to label the team‘s season a bust. As the trade line arrived this week, Miami sent starting wide receiver Chambers to the Chargers for a second round pick in next year’s draft. This is a dual message in that it negatively impacts this season’s team but it does give rookie receiver Ted Ginn a better chance to develop. Is Cleo Lemon the answer at Quarterback though? Last week he notched four touchdowns, two by air and two on the ground which seems to be an indication but count the skeptics very stacked against Lemon not being a lemon; especially when you look at his overall performance thus far and not just the game against Cleveland’s highly suspect defense. Will he be better with the loss of Chambers and the more challenging opponent? Unlikely but if Ronnie Brown continues to run well this takes considerable pressure off of Lemon and may set him up for more success. Brown is a powerful runner with excellent speed who has earned four straight 100 yard rushing performances. He’s capable of carrying the load for a full game and will challenge the Patriot defense with his 5.2 yard per carry average. His lead blocker Mauia is a 270 pound beast who will delight in taking on the linebackers of New England’s run defense. The only other note of this tandem is that Brown is the leading receiver for this team even before the Chambers trade and New England will need to pay attention to him out of the backfield.
The once vaunted Miami defense is in shambles. Age and poor roster management have joined injury in making the once powerful unit a mockery of its former glory days. They rank last in third down defense allowing 54% (t.m.) conversions. They give up almost more points than any other team (29th in the league) and will vie for that title after a game with a typical New England offensive performance. Jason Taylor is always a challenge for Matt Light and Tom Brady with Brady often giving him credit as the toughest defender he ever faces. Zach Thomas is battling injury and a depleted Defensive Tackle roster that no longer boasts the ability to so readily isolate him for tackles. Keith Traylor remains a powerful middle anchor but Vonnie Holiday is undersized and generally underperforming though the crowned jewel of under-achievement falls onto the Free Agent acquisition Joey Porter. Much talk and little performance is quickly making Miami question their choice to sign the once talented Porter. The era of shut down corners is past in the present NFL and top notch Man to man corners would now be more challenged with the Patriots plethora of talented options. Will Allen is the stalwart of the crew and he is overmatched by all three of the options which he’d likely face. Both safeties are capable but not exceptional and less so if the pass rush isn’t strong enough to aid their work.
On special teams they remain perfect in the kicking game with Brady’s one time college teammate Feely. He’s got great accuracy and decent range. Punter fields has plenty of practice and an average performance along with the coverage teams. Ted Ginn Jr. Has not as yet earned the acclaim for which the Dolphins questionably made him their first pick in the draft as both receiver and return specialist.
The comparisons are daunting against Miami but most notably is their secondary and generally weaker pass rush trying to rise up against the talents of Tom Brady with a full arsenal of weapons. There has been no better time to expect Brady to shred this unit than this year with a strong O-line matching against a weak pass rush, strong receivers matching against average coverage and even with the absence (likely) of Ben Watson, New England will flood the receivers to great advantage over the Dolphins. The Dolphins are worst in the league at third down defense in part due to that secondary while the Patriots, amongst the best, will be eager for the mismatch.
Missing Chambers, the Dolphins become even more one dimensional behind Brown’s running exploits. The New England defense is particularly adroit at shutting down a one dimensional team and will be prepared for the powerful and speedy runner. While they looked vulnerable last week, this is their opportunity for a maligned crew (P. Crayton: “their defense is not for real”) to strike back and send a solid message. This will allow Lemon an occasional opportunity but the youngster will have trouble reading where pressure is sent, where coverage is flowing and will be too little help to the running game’s plight.
The game will be played in hot and humid Miami with temperatures in the high 80s. The Patriots have played in Dallas and returned home for a short week before the journey to Miami. The flu is in the locker room and that has shades of the team burning out in Indianapolis last year for the championship game. If Miami can hang around long enough they could wear down the Patriot elder statesman at linebacker and begin to turn their offense into a ball control game that keeps the Patriots best weapons on the bench.
The seemingly fragile Maroney has not yet been ready to play for three weeks and now Sammy Morris is out with an injury as well. Blitz pickup is important but more so is the ability to keep the blitzers honest with some semblance of a running game. Faulk has always seemed unable to make the transition to the primary role and Evans, despite tearing up Miami in one game recently, has not shown the lead role. Eckle couldn’t make the Dolphins roster and has been a situational new discover with at the very most an unproven approach. The Pats may well struggle to run against the Dolphins and the Dolphins may use this to strengthen their blitz pressure and sell out against the pass.
Miami still has the means and formula to make this a long day for New England. The last above weakness and their power running may be the key for their approach. Offensively they wear down New England’s linebackers and D-line with power running behind Brown and Mauia – a powerful load in that warm environ. A solid commitment to the run and steady gains may release the coverage enough for Lemon to execute the play action and attack on the slant with the speedy Ginn. More important than the occasional run-fake and pass is the steady pounding it puts on the Patriots while keeping the chains moving and Tom Brady on the bench.
In conjunction with the power running ball control offense must be a defense willing to upscale the pressure on Brady. When Dallas reached Tom last week they made things happen against New England and now New England may be more challenged to run and thereby keep the defense honest. Until New England can prove a successful ground game, Taylor, Holiday, Porter and company may just get the pressure necessary to rush throws and reduce the offensive threat. This puts a lot of pressure on the secondary to play press coverage, a former strength of the Dolphins, and make the plays necessary to force incompletions or the rare Brady interception.
Defensively the Patriots know they showed some weakness against the run but they also know that when healthy they have the front seven to challenge almost any running attack. Their philosophy is generally to keep plays in front of them with the secondary and push the front seven to handle the rest. This will be very likely the plan as a young and unproven QB would have to make many correct plays to sustain drives. The trick is that the safeties must stay at home while the linebackers keep containment and the linemen seal the edge. Ty Warren off his worst game in some time will be matched against 345 pounds of right tackle and will likely need help but Vrabel and Adelius Thomas are excellent run support behind him.
Offensively the Patriots generally can attack whatever the opposition leaves for them. This time that may be the running game if Maroney is healthy but otherwise it’s going to need screens to Faulk as a means of backing off the blitz. Miami is a desperate team and will frequently over pursue in the heat of trying to make a play happen. New England must exploit this and use the short passes and fades to Moss as their method of breaking the Dolphins strategy. Tom’s ability to read the coverage and more particularly the pressure will determine much about the potency of the Patriot offense this week.
The Dolphins of 2007 are not the same team that has given the Patriots so much trouble in the past. They have nothing to lose which makes them dangerous and desperate. Tom has never had this high a quality of a team around him. When noted Patriots haters like Chris Collinsworth are confessing this is the best team ever there is no doubt good news in Foxboro. Still the hyperbole and superlatives aside, this game will only be won if New England pays attention to their execution. Brady will have much to say about his offenses production and likely it will be lower as the Dolphins try to force the Pats into a ground game. Meanwhile the defense has something to prove against the run and if they can’t do it honestly with seven up front then the eighth man in the box makes the performance of Lemon a gamble but a dangerous one to the team fighting for AFC positioning with Indianapolis and Pittsburgh.
The Dolphins keep it too close early but don’t have the firepower. Faulk makes his damage as does one time Dolphin Heath Evans but the real peril for the Dolphins would be the play of Maroney to break things open with several long runs. As the Patriot lead grows the Dolphins get into more and more trouble which leads to a quicker set of scores by New England and more three and outs by the Oceanic Mammals.
New England 30 - Miami 9
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The Washington Redskins, even under old Coach Joe Gibbs, would run the Counter Trap very effectively. This time, however, the Redskins represent a Trap game and to Counter it a few facts need be examined as well as the patriots holding to their monastic mantra of “One Game at a Time.” So pardon the Redskins for showing up with perhaps the best pass defense thus far on the Patriots schedule. In fact they have an overall very stingy defense playing very well presently as evidenced by the low 14 points per game average they are allowing. . The Pats better be prepared to Counter the trap or looking ahead to the World Champions will indeed make this game detrimental to the success of the New England franchise.
1) Throw no picks to this ball hawking secondary of the Redskins
2) Hold Portis and Betts to a less than 3.4 yard per carry average and particularly hold them under 4 yards on first down when they will see much run action.
3) Cooley is the primary receiving threat which means keeping him under wraps (less than five catches and no touchdowns) makes the Redskins work that much more overwhelming.
Tom Brady has defeated every team in the National Football League except the Washington Redskins. His only other attempt at them was in 2003 when the loss to the Redskins (20-17) began a 21 game winning streak for the New England Patriots. The Patriots poor luck against the once Boston based team has been poor for over three decades with the last victory being seven games prior in 1972!
So as New England is hoping to achieve their eighth win in as many attempts, the 4-2 Washington Redskins are trying to stay competitive with Dallas and the NY Giants for their division race. Joe Gibbs may honestly believe the Redskins are the biggest underdog in the history of the NFL but such hyperbole is likely the very smoke Brady suggests as the Redskins find ways to put their third ranked scoring defense to work as an equalizer in this game.
Old School Joe Gibbs is attempting to convert his style to the new age NFL. Still with a very young Quarterback, he would far rather put his offensive emphasis on the running game of Portis and Betts both of whom have failed to get a quality full game performance this year. Both run behind Mike Sellers, a fullback in a lineman’s body. While Portis and Betts both hit 225 pounds, Sellers weighs in at 284 which makes him the biggest fullback the Pats will face this year. Despite their lack of success on the ground they will attempt to get the run going and sustain as they want to protect Jason Campbell at Quarterback.
The Redskins passing strategy is overly dependent upon short routes to the very talented Chris Cooley at Tight End and under-dependent upon deep routes to Randall El or Santana Moss. The latter two should be more involved in the offense and while Randall El is catching many passes, they mostly tend to be mid-range routes. Clinton Portis is also a safety blanket for the young quarterback but the deep pass is nearly as absent as with the Jets and the weak armed Pennington though arm strength is not an issue.
Defensively the Redskins are built for speed. Their linebackers are undersized but fly to the ball well to make plays. They thus have a bit of a problem with the power game as their 4-3 alignment has a pair of mid-range sized defensive tackles but again emphasizing speed over size. Youngster Anthony Montgomery is active in the middle and will pursue plays well. Despite this they still only give up 3.5 yards per carry and rarely give up a long run.
When facing a pass the speedy linebackers are again a plus for the middle routes while a secondary comprised of four high day one picks makes for a dangerous place to throw the ball. Sean Taylor has five interceptions to lead the league and will be strong support to corners Springs, Rogers and even Smoot in the nickel formations which they are likely to use often against New England. LaRon Landry at the strong safety position joins Taylor in playing almost as well as a corner from the safety position and makes the unit very capable of handling most conventional passing attacks. Add in the sack pressure of Andre Carter who uses his speed to generate the five sacks already this season and frequently this unit can stand up to the likes of Romo and Manning (Eli) in their division.
Tom Brady, Randy Moss, Wes Welker and Dante Stalworth automatically generate a match-up strength against any team in the league. Despite Washington having considerable talent in the secondary, they are still overmatched by the most dangerous passing threat in the NFL. With the ridiculous protection given Brady this passing attack is set to break many NFL records for good reason, they are entirely that dominant.
The Patriots defense which was very recently rated second in the league is getting some heat for allowing so much progress by Miami and Dallas over the last two weeks. The unit could use to improve but has basically played to schemes and within the situational football guidelines of their large leads. When faced with a team which isn’t multi-facetted, this unit very readily shuts down the strength and exploits the weakness. They will gear up to stop the run and short passing routes and will be very successful in the run stopping realm. Whether or not Richard Seymour is ready to return just yet, the unit has a dominant front seven which seems likely ready to respond to the flak they’ve received by a dominating run stuffing as they did against dominant run teams prior to the last two weeks.
The Patriots continue to struggle against quality tight ends and Cooley is just such a tight end. He’ll challenge Harrison to step up his game and play well enough. He’s not Antonio Gates or Dallas Clark but he’s a viable threat who may exploit a bit of New England’s coverage.
Ellis Hobbs has had several weaker coverage games recently and the varying styles of Randall El and Moss may get to match up targeted plays at Ellis. As much as the Redskins want to run, their edge will most likely come in the passing they’ll need to make up points.
While New England does have the front seven to control a running game, if Gibbs patience remains strong and he can keep the game close, the mass of his line and his backs, fullback included, will wear down the Patriots who have struggled more in later quarters. Tired defenses who suffer from the Pats quick score ability can become particularly susceptible to the power running game and a grind it out style of game could turn a Patriot edge early into a Redskin edge late in the game.
Washington, like most of the league, wants to reduce the number of touches given to Tom Brady and the New England Offense. The best method for this is a power running game to control the clock and slowly log yards and minutes. This fits the tendencies of Gibbs even as his talent, while present hasn’t lived up to their abilities. He’ll emphasize this even more this week and especially highlight the counter plays that have caused the 3-4 schemes to over pursue and allow extra yards. Sellers will be taking on linebackers and Rodney Harrison in his attempt to spring Portis and Betts into the secondary. Run early and often and wear down New England. When third down requires a pass and occasionally on second down, use the talented Cooley to attack the middle of the field and move the chains. Slow and methodical this often leads to bend but don’t break but New England has had trouble closing out that philosophy in the red zone and as long as third and long is rare these drives can be successful. Every once in awhile the Redskins must try to catch Ellis Hobbs in his struggling performance and test if he can match strides with Moss when a safety pulls into the middle to help with Cooley.
Defensively it is entirely about getting pressure on Tom Brady which is not an easy thing this season. Pressure must come from overloading sides and that means making the Pats susceptible to the run. The trouble is that the pressure must reach Brady as Moss and Welker have both proven able to get deep when pressure is late. Give Carter the support of Marcus Washington, two top sack leaders for the team, and see if Brady can’t be forced out of the pocket not just up into the pocket where his poise causes the short pass to wreak nearly as much havoc as the deep ball. While many teams have failed attempting pressure, Washington has the strength of secondary to perhaps buy the pass rush just enough time and force New England to beat them with the ground game. Even if New England should be notching 8 yard gains with regularity, it still slows their offensive touches and that might keep the game in reach a bit longer. Redskins in the red zone may be ball hawkers who tighten up against the run and legitimately double all three of New England’s receiving options at the goal.
New England meanwhile continues to take what opposing defenses give them. They haven’t shown any commitment to the run but thus far there has always been an open receiver as evidenced by Brady’s ludicrous completion percentages. With Watson out of the equation at least another week, the middle of the field is only challenged by the slot receiver. If Washington can get pressure on Brady the run game must step up with Maroney and Faulk ensuring the franchise (Tom Brady) is not taking undue hits either because they pick up the blitz or break the longer runs necessary to encourage Joe Gibbs to back off his pressure approach. Pick your Poison and Tom will diagnose and deliver that poison to you but thus far nobody has mandated it be a ground game poison.
Defensively the Pats may use some nuggets from their Jets game plan. They certainly need to give Cooley his due attention but afterwards it’s all about stopping the run and trusting your corners to handle the deep routes. Safety help is for the shorter and intermediate routes unless Rodney is called to the line for run support. That rarity would already indicate a Redskin advantage on the ground which the prideful front seven do not expect. Still the unit will force longer third downs and then use a variety of their more complex zone coverages to confuse and confound Campbell’s passing attempts. The Redskins are not a capable offense and much of the base approach works with the primary strategic edge being in the Washington inability to demonstrate a deep threat despite the speed of Moss.
Finally an old school coach forces the Pats to the ground but he exposes himself too much in the attempt and Maroney is once again healthy. New England rips off longer gains on the ground than all season and steps the Redskins back from their plan. Unfortunately the ground game can score and once forcing Washington into a points race with New England’s superior defense outmatching the Redskin offense; Brady and crew get to release a second half barrage that closes the game not unlike many of the previous games. So after a lower scoring first half, the Pats put this one out of reach in the third quarter and hold serve in the undefeated season. Only one broken long play let’s Washington even on the board before a dominant defensive effort steals some of the post game glory.
New England 30 - Washington 7
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Multi-million dollar business ventures have failed. A Billionaire league has failed. Rules and Guidelines were developed and designed for the purpose of NFL parity and yet two teams are standing forth this year in mockery of said parity. The notion of two undefeated teams this late into the season not only makes for a monumental clash but also makes more of a parody of the league’s goals than for parity. The drama has so many storylines it is no wonder the hype has blown the proverbial doors off any prior match in the regular season. These are the two best teams n the league by a significant margin and they have a storied rivalry during the Brady-Manning era which coupled with the game implications make for a titanic clash. Are these the two best quarterbacks ever? Are these the two greatest teams of the decade…ever? Will one of these teams be undefeated for the season? Will this match determine home field advantage in the playoffs? Will it be a preview of this year’s AFC Championship game as it is certainly a second match of last year’s AFC Championship but with both teams adjusted for the 2007 version of their teams. The reality is this game will give one team their first defeat and the other only a single additional victory. It will with little doubt have slightly more ramifications when the playoff seedings are coming into impact at week 17 but that is vastly presumptuous as both have a half season or so of games remaining. Any individual or season long accomplishments must oddly still await the season completion. This is a step along many paths for both teams and an early litmus test for the better team. It is no accident the NFL has set only one other game opposite it at the 4:15 timeslot on Sunday. So rake your leaves early and prepare yourself for many future tales you may tell of your watching the most hyped but also the most deserving hype of modern regular season football. You can Watch Brady and Manning in their primes with top tier talent around them battling it out for NFL supremacy in a league of their own. Certainly Dallas, Pittsburgh, Green Bay and maybe a few others have the talent to on occasion surprise one of these two with a victory. Whether they can or will do it is another matter but it is clear these two are varsity to the JV NFL and this is a rarity which may never exist again in today’s NFL.
1) Break the Colts balance by controlling Addai - hold him to 3.0 or less yards per carry and keeping him under 84 yards will accomplish the task and yield a win! The bulk of this task falls on the Wilfork vs. Saturday match in the middle.
2) Allow no passes longer than 20 yards - especially to Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark. Force the Colts drives to be many shorter passes where mistakes become more likely by the larger number of attempts.
3) Preserve the protection by allowing Brady time as measured by no more than 2 sacks in the game. This must be done in large part by the line not just Brady throwing it away as he gets hit.
The Brady led Patriots defeated Indianapolis six straight times to start the rivalry. The Manning led Colts have now won three straight and this is the tenth match-up of these teams. They have met in the playoffs and in the regular season. They have two top tier coaches, two top tier organizations, the game’s top Quarterbacks and a host of reasons for the rivalry to mount. They will both adhere to the mutual admiration society when talking to the media this week and there are no doubt many friendships across the border lines. Patriot legend Adam Vinatierri is amongst the most notable line crossers although Dan Klecko made his mark for his new team when the Pats allowed him to pass to the Colts. The Colts passed to him as well and Klecko put a TD up on the board against his old team. Gamesmanship will have most everyone in each organization speaking the respect and admiration but there is deeper battles brewing behind the scenes with these teams. Whether Tony Dungee’s hypocritical shock and dismay at video-gate and Bellichick, Bill (Na) Polian’s abusive use of Chairing the Rules Committee, rising thermostats for AFC game, artificial crowd noise pumped into the dome, Pats field mismanagement, injury faking and a host of other avenues both ways which could be contested. The bottom line is that any and every edge these teams can manage is likely to be exploited because each are in the others way for the ultimate prize and while this game is really only one game that doesn’t mean it’s not a very big game for both players, coaches, organizations and most certainly fans of football played at the highest level!
These are the World Champions and while they will play that disrespect card as home underdogs despite their trophy, despite their twelve game winning streak and twelve game home winning streak; the truth is they barely need such motivations as they are simply an excellent team. They possess fantastic balance on all aspects of the game. They can run very effectively, pass very effectively, defend the run, defend the pass, kick clutch field goals, punt to perfection (if they ever need to punt) and if this is starting to sound like a Bellichick press conference it is because for once the superlatives are entirely true.
They have two excellent pass rushing defensive ends, they have the game’s premier safety in Bob Sanders, a pair of talented running backs, an all world Quarterback. They throw short, medium and long to the tandem of Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrsion the latter who should rightly claim to be the best wide receiver not named Rice in the history of the league based on longevity and performance. At tight end they’ve got a trio of dangerous weapons all of whom have torched the Pats in the past but none more so than Dallas Clark. The Colts have been known as an offense dominated team and a pass dominated team but this year they’ve thrown only twelve times more than run. This year they boast the league’s top pass defense. This year they are the fifth best run offense and while New England will long remember the difference Joseph Addai made in the AFC Championship, few realize what a fantastic change of pace and time share back is found in Keith. The Colts quite simply are a very balanced and very talented team with a very motivated and highly prepared approach. They make few mistakes as evidenced by their low penalties and high execution. Manning has been sacked three times fewer than Brady yet Brady’s Offensive line has been getting all the hype.
While statistically it is numero uno vs numero uno in the Pats Passing attack versus the Colts Pass defense, the numbers, talents and schemes are heavily laden towards the Patriots. Both Jackson and Hayden are good corners who can play physical which with quality safety support and a fantastic pass rush is generally good enough. The Pats however can go deep with all three of those, go short explosively with Welker and Stalworth while Moss is playing above and beyond the skills of every other wide receiver in the league presently. All this with Brady given great protection, using his fantastic pocket awareness and exceedingly accurate throws to showcase the best passing attack the league has seen – perhaps ever! The Pats also have an offensive coordinator making the right reads and taking what the opposition gives them with only an occasional penchant to over-test the Moss deep routes and that’s a rather forgivable offense given the success Moss has showcased.
While Joseph Addai did tear up the Patriots a bit last season, Harrison was missing from both contests, Seymour was injured and in the AFC Championship game much of the team was dry-heaving on the field as the flu, the heat enhanced environs and exhaustion overwhelmed the exhausted group. The players have yet to name any excuse to their credit but you can be assured they are healthy, rested and will add Rodney Harrison, Seymour, Seau and Adelius Thomas to the group trying to shut down the Colts rushing attack. Keith gives Addai his rest but both will be hard pressed to find yards from a unit which is incredibly stingy against all runners when the focus is on stopping the run or a balanced offense. They have given up garbage yards on the ground when teams should be throwing and the clock is sealing their fate but otherwise even six man fronts have halted opposition ground attacks.
As frustrating as New Englanders may find it, Peyton Manning is a fantastic Quarterback and he and Brady while very different are amongst the best Quarterbacks in the history of the League. Manning has been doing it longer and has sustained a high level for many years. He’s an intelligent, hard working and incredibly talented weapon. While Marvin Harrison is slipping due to injury and age, he’s far from done but the real weapons are Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark. Clark is not the only tight end as New England learned last year. Both Utecht and Fletcher are very talented receivers as well and will challenge New England with a capable short game and the potency to go deep anytime New England makes a coverage mistake which is sadly a bit too often for Hobbs and even safeties who occasionally are forced to over focus on the tight end play. So whether patiently and efficiently taking the short gains or hurling an dangerous deep play ball, Manning and his arsenal will have the Pats pass coverage facing the greatest challenge of the season.
There’s no place like Dome. The Colts can create a loud atmosphere by their enlivened crowd no doubt eager for this grudge match against the team they’d term the Evil Empire. Temperatures won’t give them an edge this week and the Pats aren’t spent from a grueling battle in San Diego but the noise will be a major factor, especially from Brady’s preferred Shotgun formation. The quick and no huddle approaches require communication which may be in doubt this week and may restrict some of the Pats approaches. This is true even before you factor in the (verified this year in the Broncos-Colts match) use of the sound system well into the play clock against the opposition. This is in violation of league rules but oddly has gone without the league taking action. Once they do shut down the full bore sound it has been observed they pump up artificial crowd noise to augment their own fans and make the dome deafening. As stated, even without these factors the Dome will be challenging for the Pats preferred approach to the Offensive line. Penalties kill drives and turnovers kill games, one missed assignment can lead to a sack and fumble that turns an otherwise close contest. While both teams are tied for first in the league in turnover differential, there is an edge helping the Colts skew this and that home turf advantage will be a factor in the game.
The number one pass defense (Colts) faces the number one Pass offense! Edge Patriots (the difference in their performance is significant despite both being tops)
Vince Wilfork vs. Jeff Saturday in pivotal line battle
Edge Colts
(Saturday has won the battle most frequently recently)
Harrison vs. Samuels
Edge Pats
(Harrison is hurt and showing age while Samuels is atop his game)
Reggie Wayne vs. Ellis Hobbs
Edge Colts
(Hobbs is struggling and Wayne is atop his game)
Adai vs New England front 7
Edge Patriots
(Pats only allow runs when game is out of reach for opponent)
Freeney vs. Matt Light
Edge Colts
(expect Light to have some help)
Mathis vs. Nick Kaiczur
Edge Colts
(expect scheme help to offset)
Dallas Clark vs. Harrison and Thomas
Edge Colts
(until proven otherwise)
Moss, Stalworth and Welker vs. Dallas Secondary
Edge Patriots
(and it isn’t even close)
Maroney versus Colts front 7
Edge Colts
(despite Pats having more rushing yards than the Colts!)
Brady vs Sanders
Edge Patriots
(Sanders won the last battle and now the 2007 MVP is poised for vengeance)
Manning vs. Bellichick
No Edge
(a key battle that is anyone’s guess who will win)
Vrabel and Pats Sack attack vs Colts O-line
Edge Colts
(despite New England leading the AFC in sacks at 22)
Seymour vs. Ugoh
Edge Patriots
(by a wide margin!)
Two very capable head coaches are going to devise the strategies which will be a pivotal part of this battle. Thus far New England has had the superior game plan for every opponent and nobody has showcased a potential weakness. Meanwhile Bellichick can review several close contests which brought out Colt points of emphasis. As well as these teams no each other and as much as this game has been studied from every angle the ultimate battle is to see who will execute most efficiently and commit the fewest mistakes.
Manning frustrated in the first half of the AFC Championship game came after the linebackers with a vengeance in the second half. With no pressure and Arick Alexander constantly overmatched by all three tight end options, it was a clear edge. The three tight ends still make for a solid edge and allow Indianapolis the luxury to attack on the ground or in the air with the same formation. Expect a lot of 2 Wide Receiver, two tight end looks from the Colts. Motion of many cogs will help reveal the Patriots defense for Manning to dissect and in the silence of his home crowd audible. He’ll want Addai to give him good yardage on first down but every time Harrison drops in the box and he knows it there will be a quick pass to a tight end or slanting Reggie Wayne. Manning will use the play clock masterfully because every second he uses keeps Brady and that other offense off the field and allows his defense to rest. He also knows that his ground game did much to win the last battle and it will test the Patriots defense at every reasonable opportunity.
The clash between Saturday and Wilfork is critical for the Colts running game because getting guards onto the inside linebackers makes Addai’s running even more dangerous. If Wilfork wins that battle then the linebackers, Bruschi, Thomas and Seau will be making plays at the Line of Scrimmage and that means long yardage for the Colts. It also neutralizes both Seymour and the outside pass rushes of Vrabel and Colvin if the middle can be attacked. This pivotal battle will do much to impact the strategy of the Colts who may have previously thrown just barely more than run; but should expect to need their passing game more than ever before this season.
Tom Brady has all the weapons in his receivers and hopes to add Ben Watson and Kyle Brady to the mix if injuries are healing as initial reports indicate. Watson is a game changing tight end as the Tampa – Two defense of the Colts is most challenged by a tight end with the talent of Watson. Welker with his quickness and fearless slot play can fill this role a bit but not nearly as effectively as a quality tight end target. Meanwhile Kyle Brady is the best blocking tight end in the game today. His support to that game not only is pivotal in Brady’s immense protection but also alters the running game. With Freeney and Mathis both capable of disrupting the offensive passing attack, New England must keep them honest, give support to the mismatches and even exploit their over pursuit. This means Draws and Screens as were showcased last week are a threat at any point. Maroney made the draw look like a guaranteed seven yards and Faulk makes every screen look like a threat to go the distance. This type of work is the counter-punch that lets Brady drop the haymakers with his receivers. The challenge is making the reads and adjustments to not be caught in a bad play at any point and given the crowd noise this will require excellent execution by Brady and Josh McDaniels.
Some points even as both defenses are proudly determined to not allow such. They are both poised enough to handle the other getting in early scores or leads. They are both poised and potent enough to come back from deficits with quality play. Each bit of lead gives an edge to the leader and should they play generally error free football, those edges will grow more and more pronounced. This game, like its predecessor, will not be over at half time. It may not be over at the end of the third or even fourth quarter and both teams know the value of each and every possession. Let the pressure get to you, be exploited without support on a mismatch and things can spiral quickly out of control but that is both ways and so full focus on every individual play will be tested through at least sixty minutes of football. These teams are going to score
The better execution has been with the Patriots all season. The better focus has been with the Patriots all season. Both have all the motivation and talent necessary to challenge the other but each edge and the best exploitation holds the key to the game. The coin toss will probably determine who scores first blood but the challenge is who can keep it up for the longest period with no mistakes. Brady to his trio of receivers? Manning to his trio of Tight Ends? Addai or Maroney in the battle of sophomores against tenacious defenses?
Both teams are well ahead of last year’s AFC Championship game which is a remarkable statement. Both have balance on offense and defense. Both can be efficient or strike quickly but which has the longevity for a full fight?
Predictions are not about questions but the answers to those questions. No team has sustained more long drives than New England this year. No team has churned out more first downs. Despite his more than double touchdown tosses, Brady has fewer interceptions and ultimately those factors tip the scale as the Pats offense more vastly distances itself from the Colts defense while the Patriots force the Colts to throw and then battle it long enough and well enough to bring the Colts execution to more ends than the other way around.
While slower than most games, the Pats steadily build their lead and as the game winds down the chasing Colts make more mistakes and New England capitalizes for the early lead in games won. Defenses offended or not, this is an offensive slugfest which the Patriots defense wins only after the offense gives them the most significant edge, a lead.
Patriots 42 - Colts 31
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1) Marshawn Lynch may be injured but their combined running attack with or without him must again be contained by the front 7 of New England. Hold them under 100 yards and earn the victory.
2) Contain the dangerous Bills Special Team return units – do not allow a special team score to turn the game from the likes of McGee or Parrish.
3) Protect Tom Brady – after taking a few bits of pressure in Indianapolis, teams are going to redouble their efforts to put pressure on tom and while Tom will burn them repeatedly for overzealous attempts, it is imperative the Offensive Line pick up their game and keep Brady from the pressure of Kelsea, Schobel and the Bills Defensive Line. Keep Tom with low pressure and the Bills defense will experience their worst game of the season.
The Buffalo Bills have demonstrated a bit of a turn-around since last they battled the new England Patriots. As a member of the AFC East the Bills have the privilege of playing New England for the second time in the regular season. They’ve lost to the Patriots a Patriot franchise record 54 times but at 5-4 on the season and winners of four straight, Buffalo has learned how to grit out tough wins. Losing to Dallas and Denver on final plays has the Bills not far removed from a 7-2 team and that accounts for one of those losses coming at the hands of new England. The previous Bills preview detailed most of the pertinent prior notes and as such I’ll leave that for reader review but the game planning has experienced some changes and the Patriots will need to be prepared for the changes in order to ensure victory over their division rival.
Some specific points to this game is that rookie running sensation Marshawn Lynch looks doubtful at best for the game with a sprained ankle. This will significantly impact the talent level though the Bills will still have a pair of capable back-ups if not spectacular in Thomas and Wright. The Patriots must prepare as if Lynch will be there and adjust if they unfortunate occurs. Meanwhile Buffalo is a 16 point underdog while playing at home with a winning record at 5-4. This is because the Patriots have a chance to become the 10th team since 1970 to become 10-0. That’s exactly how the Patriots view it and talks of higher win totals will await future games. The 10-0 record was notched 17 times in league history which somewhat demonstrates that at this point New England is simply playing for a victory and to advance their season, history is much further away than this one week. Coming off the bye week New England hopes only to pick up with the strong performance that preceded the week’s rest. New England cannot clinch their division championship this week but Buffalo knows that without this win their chances grow extremely challenging for this season. To their credit they’ve quietly managed an astounding number of significant injuries and simply played great football – something another AFC team might use for future reference.
Buffalo is playing tough defense despite their losses to injury. They are undersized but fast which is not dissimilar to the defense employed by the Colts fairly effectively against New England. They have a pair of excellent threats on the defensive front who can get pressure, not unlike Mathis and Freeney for the Colts. Perhaps this is why the half-way point of the second quarter in their last match had the Bills leading 7-3. A subtle injury with likely significant impact will be the loss of cornerback Kiwaukee Thomas. He handled quick slot receivers very well and Wes Welker is probably the best slot receiver in the game presently. The Bills like to employ a seven man pass defense with the front 4 assigned to managing the pressure and run. Dick Jauron coaches a disciplined unit which understands the monumental nature of their task.
Offensively the ball is handed back to JP Loseman for this game. He’s got a stronger arm and can throw the deep ball which Lee Evans certainly appreciates and generally uses to his advantage. Parrish, Evans and Reed are all talented and potentially explosive much as tight end Royal is sure handed though he is still recovering from a concussion which may inhibit his playing time and performance. This group struggles to sustain drives but can make a big play if the defense isn’t constantly vigilant. Their line is much improved at protection and run blocking especially on the left side and they are 5-1 since their loss to New England for good reason though that reason is now likely to be on the bench and put much more pressure on the passing offense.
Special teams is another strength of the Bills for which they might have their best advantage in the league. Punter Mormon is amongst the league best each year and his coverage teams continue to help him with their own efforts. Kicker Rian Lindell won the game last week in the clutch and has been clutch all season not only with field goal accuracy but with long kickoffs that his own units cover at a fantastic rate. All this is their support to their true outstanding special teams which is the return ability of Terrance McGee and Rosco Parrish both of whom can take any kick to the endzone on any opportunity.
Once again New England holds a vastly superior edge in almost every category. Brady as the premier passer in the league this season has a fully loaded arsenal in Moss, Stalworth, Welker and Watson while his offensive line continues to give him sufficient time to make the necessary throws. Against a ball hawking but overmatched secondary Brady may well eclipse his 311 4 Touchdown and no interception performance of the previous match. Injuries have only toughened the challenge for Buffalo and the unsympathetic Patriots are ready to showcase an offense which let up for much of their last battle when facing a talented defense. This match strongly favors New England.
The New England run defense still ranks sixth even after daring Addai to beeat them last week as they blanketed the Colts passing attack. Now they face an anemic threat with Lynch out and the Patriots front 7 being amongst the best in the league if not the best. This edge again forecasts a long day on the ground for the Buffalo offense as Rookie Wright is their best hope and his 3.0 yard average will not likely increase when facing the Patriots who add Seymour to the defense that held Lynch to 74 yards!
Loseman is a deep ball capable Quarterback who is athletic enough to buy time and make plays against many teams. He even has some deep threat but their middle consistency is so challenged and the Patriots so punishing, pressure driven and scheme confusing for the likes of Loseman that his 56 career QB rating against New England might fall still further in this lopsided match-up.
The Patriots have a decent Special team crew this year but the Bills have an excellent return game and New England will have to come prepared for this match to not be at risk. The more the Pats score the more the kick-off return game gets tested and while that still means a score, punts and kickoffs will likely edge field position to the Bills and potentially risk some bonus points that could keep the game closer than otherwise.
New England didn’t give enough help against Mathis and Freeney last week and that put Tom into more pressure than he’d had most of the season. The New England offense also struggled more than most of the season which may mean pressure is coming again with Schoebel and Kelsea foremost in that crew. They’ve gotten pressure without sacks for too much of the season but either can disrupt a game and Kaczur at right tackle is going to have his hands full if New England throws the ball as often as normal this season. This slight edge is a significant one as it can turn a game quickly.
Somewhat of a blueprint was shown for playing the Patriots but that blueprint required talent at the level of the Colts and not every team, and certainly not Buffalo, offer quite that skill set. Buffalo will attempt the emulation in several ways and put in a few wrinkles of their own. First the offense must establish a ground game which can include screen passes as well as the challenge of running to their strength on their left side. Running at Seymour and/or Jarvis Green’s side is a challenge but no more so than the Ty Warren side and certainly better to target Rosevelt Colvin than Mike Vrabel at this point. Running inside against Wilfork, Bruschi, Thomas and Seau isn’t really an option when the Pats wish to stop that approach as they usually choose. Seymour is still coming up to speed and thu7s on restrictive duty and Colvin tends to over-pursue. A quick cut-back on that side is a h ighly effective approach and TE Gaines can put a seal block that helps this become more effective. While Lynch isn’t ruled out and Wright hasn’t shown much yet, the Patriots are less likely to be fully prepared for this approach as they will for the big play prevention they’ll concentrate upon. Meanwhile that running game will keep Brady off the field if it is effective and loosen up the linebackers to help Loseman find his mid-range targets. Patience is what is needed to challenge the Patriot defense, steady gains with a mix of run and pass on first down but an emphasis on running to control the clock, keep the Pats offense on the field and protect Loseman. Parrish is Stalworthian in his ability to run after the catch and Buffalo should absolutely be looking to get him the ball from the slot.
Defensively Buffalo must get pressure from the front four. They must almost dare New England to run the ball on them as they drop back to punish and protect the short-medium routes Brady loves to throw. They did this effectively last time before injuries depleted their options but Brady did get deep to Moss to change the game. This time they must use a similar plan and upscale the pressure on Brady even at the price of the running game. As the Patriots take their shots deep they must hope the pressure forces the more errant throws and trust their safeties to get the over the top help allowed by linebacker support in the middle. There’s no easy way to stop the Patriots offense but making them take the run keeps the score down, the game in reach and perhaps frustrates a slightly impatient Josh McDaniels into calling for Tom to force a few throws deep.
New England offensively has learned to take what they are given frequently. Their impatience does grow but they have so many options and Brady reads so well that this generally still means a plethora of passing yards. They learned the trouble of trying to run out of the shotgun in a noisy environment but Buffalo cannot compare to Indy on this front either and with the week of practice to address they’ll be prepared for their visual adjustments and to minimize the penalties such situations can cause. If the Bills seem determined to give the running game room, Maroney will happily showcase his considerable talents as well and despite a tight battle with Colts Strong Safety on that front, the Pats will use this only when the Bills are forcing the edge by playing coverage formations. The balance of the Patriots is much higher than realized because the talent is so great in the passing attack but the ground game will control a game whenever the opposition isn’t attentive enough to it. Hopefully a few less draws will be needed as New England establishes a bit of power until the Bills make their mistake and drop a linebacker and/or safety to let Welker or Moss release in their preferred zones; Moss deep or Welker over the middle.
New England’s defense will no doubt have taken notice of the effective use of the run blitz against the Bills when facing Miami last week. They’ve got better talent to sustain it and a better secondary to support it. They will not give up the deep ball and will put steady pressure especially on third and long. Patient and talented teams can use efficiency to take short steps up the field but these come with a price as the Patriots steadily tighten the angles on that offense and non—efficient teams like Buffalo behind Loseman tend to make too many mistakes to sustain drives. One error brings about a third and long in which the sack attack is unleashed and the secondary starts looking to steal the ball. Samuels will nullify Evans for the most part leaving the primary battle between Hobbs and Gay against Parish and Reed with linebacker and safety support turning that battle to New England.
While the Patriots continue to give their opponent respect, they are still the vastly superior team. The Patriots are too capable of putting points on the board while Buffalo struggles much to do that even when not playing a team of New England’s defensive caliber. The Patriots return to scoring early and often while the Bills endure the longest day they’ve faced as short drives splutter continuously, the ground game is nullified and Loseman makes more errors than big plays to produce the Patriots first shutout as a welcome return from their bye week. Put an asterisk next to the bye week for rejuvenation of New England’s focus and intensity and prepare the league for a message game.
New England: 42 - Buffalo Bills 0
Go Pats!
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