A New Season Begins with Paying the Bills
 Game
Notes:
The Patriots are even of record at 3-3 which oddly has them in first
place in a weak performing AFC-East Division. Their opponents, The
Buffalo Bills, had the chance to leap into first place during New
England’s bye week just passed but were instead grossly over-matched by
the Oakland Raiders 38-17. This of course only serves to make the game
that much more important for Buffalo. Division matches in general and
this one most certainly require little additional motivation. These
teams have a long history and the recent portion has been well laden
with close battles. New England still has the upper hand on the series
with a 49-40-1 edge marking their most victories against any single
opponent.
As always past history will be of lesser impact than current
performance. Both teams are aware that first place in the Division earns
a playoff spot and it is a game which places the victor in that first
place position with an advantage over the rest of the teams. Former
Patriot Lawyer Milloy would like little more than to continue the
one-game home losing streak for New England in their home stadium. New
England, of course, has a return to winning burning in their minds and
hearts as they lost their last home game badly (San Diego) as well as
their last game before the bye (Denver). Along with the Division lead
they have the return of inspirational leader Tedy Bruschi as a highly
likely spark to a defense which has earned a rather poor run of
statistics thus far this season. There is no doubt the return of Seymour
and Bruschi could greatly bolster the new stretch run for New England
which has six division games in the ten remaining contests. Those
returns could greatly bolster a maligned secondary which would be
enhanced significantly by the improvements to the front seven
performance. These are, however, only possibilities as nothing has been
confirmed on whom is returning and whom is not yet ready. The fact is
the bye week enabled some health improvements, rest and refocus from the
coaching staff. If New England is going to begin anew with the start of
this game they must be prepared to improve their offensive consistency
and defensive play. They must return to their league low allowing of big
plays, their league leading red zone defense which has toggled
completely and most of all they must earn a win and begin building the
team which will represent their year’s performance. Is it 2002 or 2001?
Neither! It is 2005 and there is still enough talent and intelligence to
make for a top notch game and season but it must begin with performances
significantly improved from the first six games!
 Opponent
Review:
The Buffalo Bills want to run the ball and manage it fairly well.
They want to stop the run and have thus far failed miserably. Like New
England, they are still trying to solve too many problems which is why
their record is well below where they would prefer at this point in the
season. Their troubles stopping the run begin with the pivotal change to
their defensive line. The loss of Pat Williams means that while behemoth
Sam Adams anchors the middle of the line, the unit has staged down and
is vulnerable. London Fletcher still anchors the run defense but now a
level deeper than when the twin mounds roamed the middle of the
defensive line. Lawyer Milloy at Strong Safety is a fourth linebacker
which credits his run support while simultaneously questioning his pass
defense. Pass defense is not their primary problem though as their two
young corners have performed well with Terrance McGee especially
improving this season. Still the loss of Takeo Spikes and the reduction
of size on the line have left an undersized London Fletcher and the
Bills Secondary with too much work tackling and Buffalo at a defensive
disadvantage.
Offensively the Bills experimented with a young QB and with a less
than 50% completion rate Losman was replaced by the better than 70%
completion rate of Holcomb. Still the passing game is below expectations
and particularly ineffective at longer plays. Of particularly interest
is the only four passing plays longer than 20 yards. Buffalo keeps seven
wide receivers on their roster but Moulds, Reed and Evans have failed to
make significant threat deep. Still the Veteran presence and experience
of Holcomb has the offense more hopeful that if given the same rushing
attack as helped them earn a pair of divisional victories over Miami and
New York, will give them a sufficiently balanced and potent attack to
leap into the Division lead.
On special teams Moormon remains an excellent field position weapon
with a 46 yard average. Still the true Special Team weapon is McGee whom
leads the league with his 34.6 return average and constant threat to
return one for a game changing score. Keeping with their top notch
special teams work, Kicker Rian Lindell has succeeded on 14 of 15
attempts. This third and often forgotten phase of the game is an
important facet in Buffalo’s threat.
Match-Up
Strengths:
In an unusual battle of weakness points, New England’s rushing
potential is greater than the Bills potential to stop the run. In fact
Corey Dillon whom is likely to return reflects well for New England’s
chances as a powerful runner. This edge is one of the most desired in
football as a power running attack wears down a defense, moves the
chains, consumes the clock and inspires the team with the edge. Expect
New England to fully explore their ability to exploit this weakness of
the Bills. The signs of Atlanta and even Patrick Pass in Denver indicate
New England is ready for their ground attack to highlight their new
season.
Despite the big running play of Tatum Bell in Denver, New England has
shown it can stop the run when it dedicates schemes to this end. Buffalo
may have a short range balance but they have a strong desire to get
their ground game and the offense is predicated upon it. Stopping Willis
McGahee on early downs works quickly to the disadvantage of the Bills
and will be something they have to avoid. The Bills emulate Pittsburgh
whom New England has had particularly effective games against. The first
aspect of that is the propensity to run on early downs which when halted
lends to New England’s schemes.
The man in the middle of the Patriots defense is back. Tedy Bruschi
is the defensive signal caller, inspirational leader and frequently the
source of the much absent big plays. His return will fire up the crowd
and team as well as giving a middle strength of intelligence and
performance which will likely be a huge factor in the game. Whether he
is personally up to speed or not is important but his mere presence will
lift many performers around him and ensure New England is getting the
right calls into the game at the right time.
Match-Up
Weakness:
Brady was hit early and often in Denver which helped take him out of
his game. Buffalo has a swarming zone attack which can put solid
pressure on a quarterback. The left side of New England is manned by
rookies whom will face fearsome pressure as Buffalo sets out to attack
Brady and make the Patriots QB frustrated and uncomfortable. Their
effectiveness at this is tantamount to their chances of victory and
should be expected to be complex and intense.
Special Teams are strength of the Bills and not that far removed from
a New England weakness. Kick-off coverage will have caused Brad Seely
fits and the many injuries and uncertainties of players will only
enhance this challenge. This is an edge which can cause significant
swing in a game and currently rests solidly in favor of the visitor
Bills.
Duane Starks whether by scheme, injury or actual ineptitude has made
a season of offering up opposition receivers to look very good. Buffalo
and every team in the league has seen his failings and will target him
rightfully and heavily to test their chances for big gains. This only
ends when Starks or the Pats defense by replacement or scheme bind this
gaping wound in the secondary. With Tyrone Poole now out for the season
this puts much hope on Randall Gay’s return which isn’t expected at this
point. Three potential Strong Safeties are also now absent and New
England has no additional secondary support to lend unless surprise
developments occur. Despite their love of the Pass, Buffalo will have a
secondary advantage if they can keep the down and distance reasonable.
Strategy:
Buffalo will first target the greatest advantage by attacking Starks.
They have the personell to employ three wide receiver formations which
encourage isolation of Starks and all of Moulds, Reed and Evans are
capable of challenging his coverage. While reknowned for using McGahee
more predominantly they also had the lesson in Oakland when he was held
to 59 yards as reminder that a few well thrown passes will make his day
much easier. They also have seen how New England adjusting personell and
schemes against Pittsburgh let them over concentrate on the run in early
downs and as such they will be prepared to keep New England guessing. As
a similar tactic they have run some hurry up formations which prevent
New England substitutions and will quickly challenge the previously
confused defensive adjustments on the field. Whether Bruschi is ready to
handle this as in past years is not demonstrated but they will certainly
make him prove it early and often.
Defensively the Bills know the Patriots go with Tom Brady first and
foremost. They also love the pressure approach with many licks upon a QB
to steadily and increasingly disrupt the passing game. They also know
they have experience to throw at the young left side of New England’s
offense. Brady’s blind side will get a large dose of blitz pressures
while the safeties cheat up to support against both run and short
passing ranges. This will expose them a bit to the deep threat but as
New England has only had limited success and the Bill’s corners are
playing well, will be a worthy gamble.
New England on offense wants to attack the Bills soft run defense.
Nothing shuts down pressure more quickly than a successful running game.
The question of Corey Dillon’s health is important but with or without
him New England will run much behind Stephen Neal as they attack a soft
spot on the undersized Bills line. Using this to set up the play action
of Tom Brady will help them exploit potential weakness in coverage
against their talented Tight Ends. The double Tight End blocking
formation is also a dangerous pass formation against a slower Lawyer
Milloy. If every third run had a play action pass to Watson or Graham
then the Bills might quickly find themselves reeling.
Defensively New England’s biggest challenge has mostly no answer.
Starks has been weak and exposed for enough of the season that all easy
cures have been attempted. There is, however, nothing like pressure to
strengthen a Secondary and so health at Defensive line and linebacker
are tantamount. Can Bruschi’s middle presence free up the outside
backers to put run-blitz pressure on the Quarterback? Can Seymour get
back on the field with Warren, Wilfork and Green to make a team strength
return to their formidable stature? It is a sad testament to the notion
of starting over that in their seventh game there are more questions
than plans but one thing is clear, New England must either replace
Starks with a healthy and capable body or enhance the pressure on the
opposition. Stopping first down gains and making for longer late downs
will help them ramp up this pressure and hopefully force many punts.
Prediction:
This team has always been about team first and the man whom
epitomizes returns with the reminder that his return is about the team
as well. The 53 man roster wasn’t fully a team without number 54 and he
is now back. His return inspires the crowd and the team but more
importantly the team has spent a week to review their failings and
regain the focus they need for this new start. McGahee will be stopped
early and often but Holcomb’s accuracy will take a while to wear down.
Meanwhile Dillon or Pass will combine with the line to make some early
running room and soften the defense for Brady’s accuracy. Early
offensive scores force the Bills hands more steadily and ultimately a
lost art returns to New England as Tedy helps inspire Hypnotic Willie
McGinest, Mike Vrablnikoff and ball-hawking Assante Samuels to spark
turnovers and turn this game into a lopsided New England victory!
New England Patriots: 31 - Buffalo Bills: 16
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