Zip's Weekly Game Preview

November 23: Houston Texans

Texans Official	vs	ESPN Texans
	Houston Game-Day Weather
NFL Preview	Houston Chronicle	ESPN Preview

Texans Dominate the AFC-East and Give Pats Inspiration to Avoid Pitfalls

Game Notes

   Bill Belichick had his Patriot's coached before they left the locker room after the Dallas victory.  Damien Woody, Adam Vinatieri and Tedy Bruschi all commented that Houston had just beaten the Bills in Buffalo which was more than the Patriots could claim.  No doubt the opening Texan victory over Miami was also on the docket of inspiration.  The Patriots at 8-2 are a better team than the 4-6 Texans but the better team doesn't always win.  Kansas City also provided a timely reminder for New England's Texan preparation.  While these teams have never met before there is series history in Houston having played 14 times there and being a dismal 5-9 in those games.  This record as about as relevant as the past series history for any team.  Antowain Smith played college ball in Houston and will be eager to make a good showing while helping the Patriots' attempt to achieve their best record in history (9-2).  Right Tackle for the Texans is manned by Greg Robinson-Randall, the nose tackle is Steve Martin and the free safety position holds the last former Patriot in Matt Stevens.

   The Patriots are looking for their seventh straight win and a major step towards wrapping up their division while staying in position for home field advantage come tournament time.  The Titans are only two games removed from playoff contention but unlikely to realize those aspirations this season.  They are, however, eager to notch their first back-to-back victory performance of the franchise's young history.  Coach Dom Capers worked marvels with his first expansion team but also learned and is hoping to apply this learning to his second effort with a steadily improving Texan team.

Injury Report:

   The Patriot Wide Receiver corps have taken more injuries and while Troy Brown is likely to make a big return in Houston, the Patriots have a battered crew.  Last week marked the return of the Teds (Washington and Johnson) with considerable success.  Now they have their lightest injury report of the season with most of the list expected to play.  Houston meanwhile has sustained several more critical injuries including the ensured loss of David Carr and Antwan Peek for this game.

Opponent Review

   The Texans have a pair of play-makers on offense which they attempt to put in position to exploit their opposition for big gains and key touchdowns.  Domanick Davis is a short, powerful and explosive running-back.  In his first year he has averaged nearly five yards per carry and has burst out for more than 20 yards four times on the season.  That's three more times than all other backs has managed against New England.  He's also a weapon in the passing game having caught more passes than any of the New England pass-catchers.  In fact he's caught three more passes than Deion Branch or Kevin Faulk who co-lead the Patriots with 31 receptions.  He is a dangerous threat who will need to occupy considerable defensive attention.  Andre Johnson is the rookie receiver carrying the bulk of the work in Houston.  His 46 receptions leads the team as does the three balls for more than 40 yards.  He's got great size at 6'2" and 221 pounds but he has the size in conjunction with blazing speed.  These two weapons represent the bulk of Houston's offensive threat which despite their considerable talents has been below average.  They are somewhat balanced with the 15th rushing and passing offense in the league but combined this represents the 19th overall defense in yards per game.  In points per game they are near the bottom at 28th and this may be the most telling statistic of all for the young team.  Against teams with a powerful offense they have been grossly defeated while against the more defensive teams they have managed to extract their four wins and generally keep the contests close.

   The Titans Defense is led by talented middle linebacker Jamie Sharper.  His 94 tackles leads the team by a dominant amount which is appropriate for his dominant play.  Tied for fourth in the league for total tackles, his play is on par with Ray Lewis and Zach Thomas.  Dom Capers employs a 3-4 defensive scheme which features linebackers making plays and Sharper's supporting cast at linebacker is decent if not exceptional.  Jay Foreman is not far behind him and benefits from playing beside Sharper.  Jamie Sharper is the obvious strength of Houston's defense and is backed by quality cornerbacks with depth to handle multiple receiver sets for passing situations.  Having taken both of the New York Jets star corners, Glenn and Coleman, the Titans have watched their play decline slightly but still maintain quality while youthful depth is developing.

Patriot Review

   A new addition to the Preview it was well recommended I include a brief review of the Patriots in similar fashion to my Opponent Review.  It doesn't take much to acknowledge the Patriots thrive on their defense currently.  This is likely to only improve as their injury woes steadily lesson.  Richard Seymour anchors the defensive line and may be one of the brightest young stars at his position in the NFL.  Working in conjunction with Ted Washington he supplies a force in the middle of the defensive line which pressures a Quarterback and can pursue sideline to sideline.  Given this anchor New England uses a core of linebackers with enough talent to cross into Defensive Lineman when the situation requires.  Players such as Mike Vrabel, Willie McGinest and even Roman Phifer can mask their multiple roles as they confuse their opposition and provide pressure from an array of positions while dropping into coverage from surprising formations.  Meanwhile the difference from last year's disappointment is evident most notably in the renovated secondary.  Rodney Harrison, Eugene Wilson and Tyrone Poole have joined Ty Law in greatly strengthening the secondary.  Asante Samuels is available to add speed nickel coverage when needed and the entire group has been a dominating force.  They do not get beat deep and they punish short routes.  Meanwhile the central point of the defense is held by Tedy Bruschi who has worked to call the defensive formations and lead by example with an infectious full tilt performance.  They get quality performances on every level from Hamilton to rookie Dan Klecko.

   Offensively the Patriots have yet to hit stride as they continue to make enough mistakes to hold themselves back.  Usually in the form of penalties or dropped passes the group is most notably impacted by an inability to get their ground game moving in the last four games.  They have a Bruising style back in Antowain Smith as well as an elusive speedster in Kevin Faulk.  The main challenge comes from their offensive line not generating enough push.  A bit more capable on their left side, the right side of the line is clearly more suited to pass protection.  This very pass protection has been much better than anticipated.  The surprising performance of rookie Center Dan Koppen has freed Damien Woody to fill a need at Left Guard.  Meanwhile Tom Ashworth, a converted Tight End, has been holding down surprisingly well at right tackle.  The true strength of the pass protection has been excellent pocket awareness by Tom Brady.  After a slower start to the season he has become steadily more capable of moving around in the pocket to get the time needed for his throws.  A battered wide receiving group has still managed to produce the necessary yards, catches and points to keep pace with their opposition and provide the defense enough points to reach their 8-2 record.

   Throwing out the abomination which was their opener against Buffalo, New England has been exceedingly competitive with the sole loss beyond Buffalo coming in Washington when the offense had a last minute chance but for once failed to get the go-ahead or even tying score.  Three times the offense has supplied more than 30 points to ensure victory while each other game was carried by the strong defense.  Special teams may have slipped a bit with Ken Walter having an abysmal season but Adam seems to have found his poise again and once more may be expected to automatically supply his field goals.

Our Match-up Weakness

   Houston has a balanced threat of three phases.  They have a very talented running back who can break a big gain in fashions similar to Clinton Portis.  Portis was the only 100 yard running-back against New England this year and Davis may be a back to threaten similar especially since he represents the second phase in his receiving ability out of the back-field.  The third phase is the threat of talented receiver Andre Johnson.  In New England's linebacker dominated schemes this supplies a triple threat of the run, pass to the back and slants to the receiver which may keep them sufficiently busy to give Houston an edge.

   Ken Walter has lost all height to his kicks and much of the distance.  Houston has dangerous return options and New England must step up their efforts on special teams to avoid this advantage becoming easy points for the Houston Texans.  Coverage can make up for some of it but it will be a steady challenge in field position and flat out special teams scores.

   Many opponents are put at odds by the 3-4 scheme commonly employed by New England.  The Texans practice against it on a regular basis and as such will not have to make many adjustments against this facet of New England's typical advantage.

Our Match-up Strength

   The timely return of Ted Washington and Ted Johnson have shored up the run defense.  When determined to stop the run they are a very capable team for doing such.  Seymour's side to side speed is augmented by the behemoth form of Washington in the middle.  This speed and athleticism will put pressure in the middle which forces Davis outside into the waiting arms of linebackers who are assigned to seal his outside lanes.

   Assigning one of their talented linebackers to specifically target Davis allows the secondary to concentrate on the dominant threat of Johnson.  When Johnson and the running game is neutralized the pressure falls on barely back-up quality Tony Banks.  While he did defeat the Patriots in his final season as the St. Louis starter, Banks has fallen steadily into decline.  Though his numbers are a bit higher than David Carr's he is forced into service by Carr's injury and will be at a mismatch against the confusing defensive schemes which are his most notable challenge.

   The Patriots have been generally determined to attempt to run outside the defensive Tackle positions.  Against most teams they've faced this has been a disadvantage but it is precisely the weakness of the Texan run defense.  Faulk would be particularly effective in this scheme but even Antowain's power off the edge of the Tackle is likely to be an effective tool.  When their run game gets going their play-action is even more dangerous.

Strategy

   Offensively the Texans must attack with their ground game.  They want to run away from Seymour and outside of Washington or they must pull a guard to put an extra body on Seymour.  New England's run defense may be shored but Davis must test his speed against Vrable, Phifer or McGinest's ability to get to the edge.  If his speed is an edge or close enough to keep the threat real then New Englnad's corners will be worn down trying to support a run-game which steadily controls the ball and clock.  Staying out of clear passing situations is the only way to ensure Tony Banks isn't stunned with blitzers forcing him to make errors.  Field Position games favor the Titans and they have the style running back to help them achieve it if they can keep him away from Seymour and Washington.

   Defensively they want to stack against the run in a run-blitz approach all the while jamming the wide receivers.  The short passing game hasn't been consistent enough to score and New England has relied on the big play to stay in games which had their line stacked.  The receivers whom are getting these deep plays do not have the physical tools to overcome a jam if there is pressure enough to force a quick throw.  The steady underneath throws will punish an ailing crew of receivers who seem to develop the drops after a few hits.

   New England meanwhile wants to shut down the two primary threats.  Johnson is a challenge but only if Banks can get him the ball without fearing the turnovers which New England's cut-purse secondary has started to perfect.  The Patriots therefore will trust their rebuilt secondary while swarming Dominick Davis.  This swarm will convert to Bank's Nightmare if the Texans aren't able to play-action the Patriots into a tentative blitz approach.  Let Davis attempt to run and catch but limit his gains and wear him down.  New England's defense is predicated on the principle teams will not convert enough third downs if the bigger gains are thwarted.

   Offensively New England would love to run at the Texan defense.  To do such they will first loosen the middle linebackers by sending their double tight end formations to attack the middle.  Graham and Fauria must pressure Sharper off the line to help get the running game underway.  As with any team boasting a dominant middle tackler, the strongest assault is to run at him with a pulling guard and let the back run off this guard.  Damien Woody is one of the better pulling guards and will have this opportunity to spring his back for steady gains.  The more steady gains exploited will lead to more opportunities for the Play Action pass to attack downfield.

Prediction

   The Houston Texans do not provide the pressure needed to trouble Tom Brady.  With his generally decent protection and well proven pocket awareness, he will be finding more time than usual to select his receivers.  Houston's defense is too one-dimensional and as such Charlie Weis will exploit that dimension for more points than his offense has managed in two of the last three games.  Meanwhile the Patriot defense is peaking already and are faced with threats which fall mostly within their spectrum.  The challenge is holding down the corner against Davis' speed.  Davis will fall short of Portis' mark against New England but still it is not enough to cover for the other shortcomings.  New England is too much team for the Texans and they are sufficiently aware of the trap threat to be fully prepared.  The Defense can't pitch back-to-back shut-outs but it's close while the offense controls the points and gives the biggest win of the year despite a late Texan score.

New England Patriots -  34  -  Houston Texans - 10

Give me your feedback on my message board!

November 16: Dallas Cowboys -- * Sunday Night Football *

Cowboy Official	vs	ESPN Cowboys
	Foxboro Weather
NFL Preview	Dallas Morning News	ESPN Preview

Billed as the Battle of Bills - Top Teams Must Contend on Field

Game Notes

   Bill Parcells brings his 7-2 Cowboys to Foxboro for a Sunday Night Match-up which pits him against his former friend and team in the Bill Belichick coached New England Patriots.  Two division leading teams meeting at this point in the season always draws well earned attention for the quality of the competition.  The rivalry of the coaches is clear and their desire to win for such only intensifies the drama and the competition.  Ultimately the battle of two top-notch coaches is only a small part of the scenery.  The execution of the players and the nature of their individual matches will dictate this game.  Terry "I Hate Everything about New England" also returns as the Cowboys leading receiver and most of New England's Secondary hopes to give him good reason for his potent emotional outlook.  

   While Dallas has dominated the infrequent battles by holding a 7-1 victory edge, New England was victorious in their last battle in 1999.  The pertinent significance for this game is not in the historical series, it's in the coaching match, the team records and the individual matches.  The loss could likely put Dallas in a tie for their division lead while New England does have an extra game cushion.  When the season winds down games such as these will frequently have prepared a team for post-season victories as well as steps closer to the highly coveted home-field advantage.  This is a classic game with all the appropriate ramifications and nearing midnight on Sunday night there will be a team with at least a better record if not the type of confidence which carries a team deep through the second half of the season.

Injury Report:

   The mystery of the Injury report won't tell us whether Richard Seymour is likely to play.  It won't tell us whether big Ted Washington or tough Ted Johnson will return tot he line-up for this marquee match.  The Patriots are looking far more healthy after their bye week but they still do not have the good fortune of the Cowboys who barely made a stirring on their initial injury report.  Injuries will be a factor but it will be a smaller factor than it has been since the start of the season for New England.

Opponent Review

   The Dallas Cowboys are the top defense in the NFL.  They allow a league best 234.6 yards per game.  Their passing defense is also top in the league which generally is connected since passing yards more frequently comprise the bulk of an offensive attack.  Also in terms of yards their rushing defense is third in the league at 85.1 yards per game.  In the most important statistic for judging a defense, scoring allowed, the Cowboys are tops again allowing only 15.1 yards per game.  They are simply an outstanding defense inspired by the Master Motivator, Bill Parcells, to swarm to the ball.  The secondary are excellent at coverage with reserves talented enough to handle the multiple receiver formations of New England.  Their safeties are hard hitting with the speed to add to a pass rush when blitzes are called.  The linebackers are as a unit faster than any other group in the NFL.  Aiding them is a capable defensive line with decent speed on the outside for pass rushing and sideline to sideline pursuit.  The Defensive Tackle work on the speed and power tandem of Glover and Blade respectively.  Nguyen is the Middle Linebacker who will perform with the speed of Zach Thomas but without the reads made by Thomas.  Dexter Coakley is just behind him in tackles as this speed tandem represent the heart of the Dallas defense.  In the last two weeks this defensive unit has faced poor offensive lines, immobile quarterbacks and challenged running games.  As such they've launched a battery of blitzes which has decimated their opponent.  There is further question regarding the actual talent of the offenses they have faced thus far this season but make no mistake, the group has talent and has learned to believe in themselves and their coach on their way to the 7-2 mark.

   Offensively the Cowboys came into the season with great receiving talent, a big powerful line but a significant question at Quarterback.  Quincy Carter has emerged highly successfully mostly on the benefit of Parcells giving him clear instructions.  Carter isn't being asked to do more than play within himself and the simplified system and talented options have paid dividends.  Their running game has a bit of turmoil as Adrien Murrell emerged for the lead role last week after primary back Troy Hambrick showed a propensity to fumble more than Parcells is willing to tolerate.  Neither is averaging close enough to the 4 yards per carry needed for a dominating running attack.  Still, more than half of their plays have been runs to ease some pressure and with their dedication they have earned the 7th best yardage on the ground of any NFL offense.  The addition of Perennial Pats Killer Richie Anderson has provided a talented safety valve for Carter in his blitz reads as well as his impressive receiving skills.  So when not finding any of his trio of receiving threats such as ex-Pat and current Cowboy Reception leader Terry Glenn, he may be finding Anderson.  Speedster Joey Galloway is the other starting wide-out and his well known talent helps make Antonio Bryant yet another speedy threat when in the multiple receiver set.  Parcells knows well to use Glenn in the slot and keep him from the jams which have been a problem in his career.  Ultimately they throw a vertical game to their receivers or outlet to their fullback when options are handled.

Our Match-up Weakness

   Dallas has an outstanding and speedy defense which allows no room to run outside the tackles while being capable of punishing the short passing game is so frequently a mainstay in the Patriot attack.  The safeties in their scheme are more free to shut down the deep pass which was the savior in Denver while trusting the linebackers to flood the shorter routes to either punish the receivers or tip away Brady's attempts.  Although not renowned for turnovers they are well suited to limit New England's preferred modes of attack.

   The Cowboys have more speed depth at receiver than the Patriots have faced up to this point.  Although the New England Secondary has given up yards without points, they will be more severely challenged to keep pace with this group and if their schemes get a speedster on a linebacker it could prove costly for New England.

   Parcells will not allow his team to abandon a successful running attack.  The absence of Seymour did make New England a bit softer against the run last match and Parcells will exploit it as long as it shows.  While Seymour is a question at this point, Parcells will be prepared to challenge the Patriots run defense without the mercy granted by Miami and Denver.  At 6'1" 230 Troy Hambrick is a powerful force against New England's linebackers.  The line in front is enormous and will attempt to wear down the undersized portions of the Patriot defense to break out ball control and Hambrick against the linebackers.

Our Match-up Strength

   Quincy Carter is kept on simplified systems in large part to support his inexperience.  He will now face the most complicated schemes he's seen to date and has matched his touchdown total (9) with interceptions.  When called to pass his lower completion percentage and limited experience may result in fewer conversions than the Cowboys need to keep control of the ball and game.

   Dallas loves to blitz on defense but Tom Brady has proven to have excellent pocket awareness.  He will shift in the pocket and pre-read the blitz to continually make the right decisions.  A major part of the defensive strength could be well neutralized by this awareness and reaction from New England.

   This is not a neutral location.  New England has a particular passion against Terry Glenn and Bill Parcells.  With all the significance of this game there will be a riled crowd on hand for the night game and their noise will make things challenging for Carter and his offense.  Along with the crowds vocal support the Cowboys face their first battle with cold weather which again will challenge their offense significantly.

Strategy

   Offensively New England has two viable options.  The Cowboys are fast but a power running attack which puts a guard on a linebacker does much to neutralize this speed.  A physical run attack and power back such as Antowain Smith can gain yards against this group and New England has worked with some success against similar units.  In conjunction with this style of attack which puts pressure on the middle of the linebacking corps, New England has a pair of talented tight ends with Graham especially beginning to emerge as a favorite target for Brady.  The two attacks play off each other to make the other more successful and could eventually pull the safeties from their deep coverage to support the middle.  This is dangerous as Denver learned because Brady can in fact throw the long ball and both Givens and Branch are legitimate deep threats.

   Defensively New England must stop the run while confusing Quincy Carter.  The Cowboys run a significant amount of the time and with the expected return of Teds (Washington and Johnson) the run defense should improve significantly.  Stopping the run puts pressure for Carter to beat him and much as Kannell faltered in Denver, the Patriot scheme of forcing continued small plays for a drive should begin to work in their favor.  When passing situations arise it will be New England's turn to get a quick and surprise blitz onto Carter while Zone Coverages roll under their receivers and cause the turnovers which have been a mainstay of New England's seven victories.

   Dallas does want to run the ball at the undersized portions of New England but also they wish to mix in early down passes to prevent New England from stacking against this run.  Richie Anderson has always been particularly effective against them and he can drift out to soften the middle for the powerful running game which depends on linebacker support.  The Patriots know Glenn doesn't like to be hit at the line and Law will probably be asked to do just that with some frequency.  Thus moving Glenn in the slot will also be a common practice.

   Defensively Dallas needs to stage back on their blitz approach.  Attack the right guard and tackle with their stunts because this has been a weakness which has forced pressure without the need for blitzing.  This will allow their linebacker speed to shut down the run and flood the short routes successfully.  The infrequent blitz will be all the more effective and the change will disrupt some of New England's planning for these blitzes.  The Patriot receivers are getting more depleted and the hard hitting philosophy of Woodson and especially Williams will wear down the receivers and limit New England even further.  If their line can generate the pressure it will keep the linebackers free to shut down the shorter attacks with the corners and the safeties will prevent deep gains.

Prediction

   This is a good battle but New England does have the greater talent, the better schemes, the more recent rest, the home field and as such simply too many advantages.  This doesn't mean the game won't be close, Dallas has too good a defense for a major route unless the Cowboy offense chooses to surrender points.  The game will rely on Field Position in which Ken Walter has been more of a liability than a benefit this season.  Ultimately the battle of two good defenses then defaults to the skill of their offensive counterparts to successfully win enough battles to take the game.  Brady has all the edges needed over Carter and with the extra rest of the bye week his offensive teammates will supply 23 points while the defense for New England beats out Quincy Carter and the Cowboys struggle to reach two touchdowns after an early field goal.

New England Patriots -  23  -  Dallas Cowboys - 17

Give me your feedback on my message board!

November 3: At Denver Broncos - Monday Night Football!

Bronco Official	vs	ESPN Bronco
	Denver Weather Report
NFL Preview	Denver Post	ESPN Preview

Contenders Win These Games  But Denver Has Dominated

Game Notes

   The Broncos are reeling having lost three of four and two straight while New England is rolling with four straight victories.  These facts might be more relevant if the historical details didn't overwhelmingly favor Denver who leads the series 22-14.  Ok, perhaps that will be less significant than a quality defense holding a great home-field advantage in a prime-time Monday Night atmosphere which is certain to electrify the crowd noise.  This game has significant ramifications for Denver as they are quickly falling from playoff radar with the Chiefs so far ahead in the division race.  Denver needs to have this AFC match to aid them in the wildcard hunt.  New England is fighting to keep ahead of Miami and has little room for error.  Both teams are heading into a BYE week and should be well focused on their opponent for the match.  One thing for certain is the battle of Shanahan (6-2 versus Patriots) and New England (6-2 this season) will provide someone their lucky seventh win.

Injury Report:

   The Patriots are getting healthy and the Broncos are swinging towards more injured.  This is the first time since week 1 the Patriots list is shorter than their opposition.  The Broncos also are seemingly plagued with more key personnel injured.  Reduced to their third string Quarterback (Danny Kannell) they must endure his sprained index finger as well.  A pair of talented starting linebackers in Ian Gold and John Mobley further hamper the Broncos.  The Patriots have survived significant injury woes themselves but thus far this has been too much for Denver.

Opponent Review

   The Denver Broncos need success very soon and in order to receive it they likely must rely on their defense and Clinton Portis.  This was considerably easier with a mobile Plummer handling the Quarterback role and has much to do with Denver's 4-0 start.  Kanell is struggling and teams have begun to stack the line against Portis.  They certainly have a talented group of weapons with perennial Patriot Killer Rod Smith who averages more than a 100 yards receiver per game against New England.  Shannon Sharpe is back and against the Vikings had 7 catches.  Certainly not the speedster of his youth but experience still keeps him dangerous.  Then Easy Ed McCaffrey (if he can make the game) presents exactly the target our youth have struggled to contain.  A tall receiver who can get up to bring down the jump ball.  Ashley Lelie also has decent size and allows the Broncos to spread the field with competent receivers.  All this and a talented running back who is third on the team in receptions.  Clinton Portis is much like Kevin Faulk with good speed and a talented array of moves.  He can break away for a long run but is less likely to be the power running which is probably as well since the Denver Offensive Line is no longer the dominant line of the 90's.  Still he's averaging 5.2 yards per carry which helps lift the Broncos to the third best rushing offense in the league.  If Portic can manage this against New England it will do much to improve the inexperience of Danny Kannell and show the tools are in place for a much better passing offense than their current 24th ranking..  

   Defensively the Denver Broncos are the second best team in yards allowed.  They remain a strong if somewhat injured group.  Their strength has been excellent pass rush from the defensive end position and solid linebacker play across the board.  The ends still dominate with Trevor Pryce being less sack-cessful than Bert Barry who has amassed 7 at the half way point.  Both have great speed and sufficient power to be very similar to the Miami attack.  Unfortunately the loss of Ian Gold and John Mobley will expose a weakness at linebacker.  They will be lacking the speed and experience which has enabled the pass rush to be so fierce without fear of the running game taking off against them.  Al Wilson remains and not surprisingly leads the team in tackles but he cannot make up for the loss and Denver will have to adjust for their absence with safety support or risk watching their statistics drop along with hopes for a playoff run.

   Against the pass the Bronco secondary needs the pressure to aid their protection schemes.  Their corners and safeties lack the shut down ability of some defenses but have the depth to handle New England's multiple wide receiver formations.  This is likely to be further tested as their linebacker challenges and New England's scheme will prompt a fair amount of Nickel and Dime packages from the Broncos.

   On Special Teams Jason Elam is still one of the most steadfast kickers in the league.  He's connected on 17 of 18 this year with his only miss being more than 50 yards.  There isn't any margin of error in letting him line up against you.  The punting game hasn't been all Denver would wish as their net gain is just over 33 yards.  In the mile high punting world this is a surprisingly poor average.  

Our Match-up Weakness

   Denver does have a strong running back and 5.2 yards per carry isn't an accident.  He's equally dangerous as an outlet in their passing game and New England's multiple formations and disguises often open up for a big game by a receiving back.  Portis is an excellent back for this and will be hurting New England all day if they do not provide extra attention on him.

   Shannon Sharp will find many match-ups against Roman Phifer and he's got the advantage in these matches.  Harrison will likely be giving a bit of extra attention towards him but if he becomes the outlet for Kannell early then the linebacker reaction will loosen things more for Portis.  Sharpe creates a mismatch and Shannahan will eagerly attempt to exploit it.

   Rarely is so general a mismatch labeled but in this case it remains appropriate.  New England's offense has been anemic when it comes to scoring and Denver has a potent defense even with injuries factored into the plans.  Faulk will find speedy ends closing his routes to the outside.  Brady will find those same ends hounding him into quicker throws than he would like for most of the game.  Adding the home crowd noise and New England's offense has a significant mismatch facing them.

   The crowd in Denver is intense and they know this is a critical game for Denver.  The team is far more against the wall than it's Patriotic counterpart.  Desperate teams are the most dangerous in the NFL and with a loud bit of crowd behind them, this is the desperation game which brings out the best of an opponent. 

Our Match-up Strength

   Danny Kanell struggles with most NFL defenses and a Bill Belichick defense which can scheme for him is more likely to wreak havoc on the third string injured Quarterback.  Turnovers win games and confused Quarterback's yield turnovers.

   Portis is the key to the Broncos success and Belichick thrives on taking away a team's best weapon in his opening move.  Having recently faced a very similar opponent in the Miami dolphins, Belichick has the schemes to shut down Portis and the new wrinkles to ensure there's a pass defense match waiting for him as well.  Denver is going to be forced to depend on Kanell and this will play very well into the hands of New England.

Strategy

   Expect New England to play this game much as they did against Miami.  There will be five 'linemen' prepared at almost every snap of the ball.  They'll run blitz first to force the passing attack.  Shanahan isn't as predictable as Dave Wandstedt but the dependency on Portis is even greater by need.  They know Denver has talented receiving weapons and will give them tighter coverage with more man looks than usual.  They are less concerned with hitting the Quarterback than with stopping the run and confusing him on the pressure.  The short passing game is additionally challenged by the hands in all the lanes batting passes on their way to shutting down run lanes.  When Denver's traps are employed to punch holes for Portis, the excellent speed of New England's defensive line behind Seymour and Warren will steadily demonstrate those holes aren't available.  When obvious passing situations arrive they'll mix between blitz pressure and umbrella coverages which rely on Kanell to beat them - something most won't believe until he proves it.  He may get short strides in the schemes but there will be nothing deep and they will await his mistake like the ball hawking team they've become.

   Offensively New England unveiled Daniel Graham just in time.  Now the Denver linebackers which are waylaid by injuries must find a means to plan for Graham's explosive and athletic receiving.  The Patriots will test that quickly because this loosens the middle for their attack on the ground.  Woody and Light have formed a formidable run blocking duo.  When a pulling guard or tight end in motion joins them Faulk has steadily found the 4-5 yard gains which set up the controlled short passing attack of the Patriots.  Although it hasn't been particularly dangerous in the red zone, they are moving the ball and as Brady's weapons return Branch, Brown, Patten and Johnson provide a dearth of options to spread the field.  Lacking their biggest nemesis of a quality linebacker crew, these receivers will find more room to have a bigger day.

   Denver's offense knows New England will gear towards Portis and they must hit Sharpe early and often to loosen the vice on the ground game.  Harrison will be prone to cheat forward and Smith can get deep if  Harrison cheats on responsibility with that particular match.  New England isn't prone to the deep play but an attempt or two will remove Harrison's team leading tackles from the running game and help Portis get deeper into the secondary.  If Kanell can handle the pre-scripted plays to loosen the run defense he'll have an easier afternoon handing the ball off and controlling the tempo while wearing down New England's defense which is still a bit short on bodies.  I think one message will remain clear for the Bronco Offense: no matter how much he's limping, Ty Law is still the shut down corner of this team.

   On Defense the Broncos need to collapse the pocket on the inside to best disrupt Tom Brady and the Patriot offense.  Faulk likes to run at the speed defensive ends but Brady needs a pocket to be effective.  By playing significant nickel and dime coverages the middle backer can challenge New England's blocking to get the middle pressure.  Stunting the linemen and allowing Wilson to fill the gap created by the stunt will lead Faulk to many tackles and Brady will find his confidence in the pocket as shaky as his last trip to Denver in 2001 in which his four interception day cost the Patriots a game in hand but not ultimately their Superbowl crown.  Let the ends emphasize the interior rush and let the outside corners get into Faulk's lanes on running plays.  

Prediction

   Ultimately Kanell is too great a weakness for this Denver team which has seemed to embrace the injury excuse rather than take the motivation to overachieve as New England has managed this season.  McCaffrey and Sharpe are too limited even without Kanell to set them up for too many hits.  Smith can get deep but not with the frequent pressure New England will having Kanell feel.  The Patriot defense wins this game without the offense needing the connection Brady and Graham are likely to also exploit on the embattled linebackers of Denver.  The defense hands New England 10 points which the offense matches and New England slips into the contenders with a very important victory, one which is likely critical to the Broncos.

New England Patriots -  20  -  Denver Broncos - 13

Give me your feedback on my message board!

October 26: vs. Cleveland Browns

Browns Official	vs	ESPN Browns
Bernie's Insiders	Weather Report	Fan Board
NFL Preview	Plain Dealer	ESPN Preview

No Trap For Belichick and Warrior Patriots

Game Notes

   The Browns last visit to Foxboro was the Troy Brown show as he combined for 214 yards with 125 in punt returns with a morning snow coating the field on December  9, 2001.  The Browns have dominated the series 11-6 but New England has taken 3 of the last 4 battles.  These are of less relevance then the typical Browns fan's hatred of Bill Belichick for his benching of beloved son Bernie Kosar and in small part for Belichick's role under Art Modell when the team was stolen by Baltimore.  Probably more frustrating is the knowledge the job training at Cleveland did much to make Belichick the Superbowl Champion coach who now walks the sidelines for New England.  Now Belichick has a battered Patriot team in first place despite a legion of injured players.  Cleveland in baseball fashion is one half game out of first place in the struggling AFC North.  New England has won on effort and coaching and cannot overlook the Browns if they wish to stay atop the AFC-East.  This will be particularly challenging with the Denver Bronco game looming on the Horizon while Cleveland has been struggling with a 3-4 overall record.  Still Cleveland took the last AFC wildcard from the playoffs last year and details such as this highlight why these AFC matches are vital to a team making the playoffs.  There are plenty of reasons why Belichick should be able to avoid the trap of this game.

Injury Report:

   When hasn't the Patriots injury list looked like the credits from most Hollywood productions?  This is the midpoint of the season for both teams and as such there are a fair number of injuries for each unit.

Opponent Review

   The Cleveland Browns don't have an identity and part of the reason is they released most of it during last off-season.  They are led by their Quarterback ... oh case in point, by a pair of Quarterbacks who have logged very similar statistics.  Highly drafted Tim Couch seemed to fade last season as Kelly Holcomb inspired his teammates.  This year Holcomb struggled and was injured while Coach continued mediocrity.  A single completion separates their statistics while each have fired the same number of interceptions as touchdowns, 4 of each for Couch, 5 of each for Holcomb.  Despite a very talented trio of receivers in Kevin Johnson, Quincy Morgan and Dennis Northcutt, the team is still 28th in yards per game and 29th in points per game.  With a pair of injured tackles they are even more challenged to provide adequate protection.  They have passed more than run but much of this has been due to trailing in their games.  When they run they have Boston College stand-out William Green running the ball.  Green averages just under 4 yards per carry in his second season but has the speed to break a long gainer if he can reach daylight.  Still they have not risen above 23 in rushing yards per game and it is reasonable to note Cleveland does not run or pass the ball particularly well.  In their hunt for an identity they have also not yet found the balance between those two which will make both better.  Until then their fate rests on the performance of whichever Quarterback they choose for the day and thus far the inconsistency of choice has had equal inconsistency of results.

   Defensively the Cleveland Browns are ranked sixth in yards per game vastly on the strength of a quality secondary.  They rank 27th in rushing yards per game which is offset by the top ranking against the pass.  Some of the passing rating is due to their inability to stop the run but most of it is the quality of their secondary as well as a line which does get pressure onto the passer.  The missing ingredient is of course the linebackers they lost in the off-season.  This is no slight to Andra Davis who is having a fine year but the lack of experience across the board at linebacker is a factor in the early struggles against the run.  It is likely to pay dividends in the future as the trio of second year men come up to full speed together.  The big Defensive Tackles tend to hold their ground reasonably well while Courtney Brown is a monstrous force of pressure from the outside.  The trouble is teams target each of the ends on the ground and if they get their block the outside backers haven't been strong enough in run support to make the difference.  LaDanian Tomlinson was particularly effective in breaking big runs on the unit.

Our Match-up Weakness

   The Browns are weakest against the run but New England is not a particularly strong running team.  Better than previous years, the style of running attack which best benefits New England is Kevin Faulk and to some extent Mike Cloud.  The Browns can handle the power running game reasonably well and with a quality secondary may stack the line to handle both the runs and short passing game which is New England's forte.  

   Je'Rod Cherry has been a special teams ace for the Patriots.  The mounting injuries have called for role players to become for of a factor.  This has had a negative impact on their special teams work and ability.  Combining the Cherry and Chatham injuries with the duty increase points to a potential for problems on New England's coverage and return games.  Cleveland has a pair of dangerous return men in Northcutt and Andre Davis.  They very well may be looking to exploit the very weapon which New England used against them in their last match.

Our Match-up Strength

   The Patriot Defense will be attacking an ailing or absent offensive line.  This is normally a challenge for healthy and well practiced lines to handle as Crennell's schemes assault them from many angles.  Worse news has been the steady progress and emergence of Richard Seymour as a disruptive force.  This leads to pressure and confusion for the Quarterbacks who are splitting work which gets neither as well prepared for the confusing deceptions of a Patriot defense.  It's a massive detriment to the Browns to have such a battered line against a defense which so well exploits inexperience.

   Those inexperienced linebackers are likely to feel a bit of exploitation from Charlie Weiss and a Patriot offense which likes to challenge the short to medium range.  New England's toughest challenge offensively comes from teams with great linebacker speed and experience.  Cleveland's crew of youngsters will be well challenged.

   Home field is a particular advantage to New England who remains undefeated at Gilette this season (3-0).  They are also winners of 15 of the last 20 games in Foxboro and they will have a proud crowd eager to welcome them to the game and make it as difficult as possible for Cleveland's often confused offense.

Strategy

   Much as they did against the Jets, New England will be determined to run the ball.  Their goal is to shorten the distance on third down and count upon efficiency from Brady to use the shorter distance to manage a good ball control game.  They specifically want to run at the defensive ends with a speed attack which will force the linebackers to react.  Their favorite run formation is actually the 3 wide-receiver set which forces the outside backer or nickel back to either line up tight and risk the receiver pattern or line up loose and struggle to support the run in time.  By keeping the run pass option sufficiently unpredictable both become more dangerous.  The bigger defensive tackles are a bit slower to react and thus a pulling guard can get out to spring these outside runs.  This particularly plays to a strength of Damien Woody.

   Defensively the Patriots must be somewhat concerned with a triple threat of wide receivers.  Ty Law ailing does not lend to their strength in coverage as Poole, Samuels and Eugene Wilson will get called into stronger coverage responsibility.  Unlike the Miami game, New England is far more likely to run the zone schemes against the beleaguered Brown offensive line and injured running back.  Still the coverage duty against three quality wide receivers is more demanding.  Expect the front 7 to employ many forms of the zone blitz to add pressure and confusion on the line which will aid the secondary on their tasks as well as rattle the mistake prone Cleveland Quarterbacks.  Having Phifer and Chatham injured may produce some five man defensive lines to work those zone blitz schemes and rest the bruised linebackers.  

   Meanwhile the Browns would love to establish their running game right up the middle and probably home New England will sway from the defense which stopped Ricky Williams' ever attempt to do just such a thing.  Their guards and center are the lesser injured and the entire offensive line is better able to hide their weakness if allowed to run straight at New England.  The Patriots lack the depth for much restful substitution but have managed to keep their running game strong despite the attempts of most teams this year.  The Brown's must take some shots downfield playing on their talented trio to escape the zone or beat an overly aggressive Harrison caught up in run support.  Getting a linebacker matched on a slot has happened to New England this year and if Cleveland can manage they like the battle more after watching Dolphins Tight End McMichaels set a record day against New England.  The trick for the Browns is setting the Patriot pressure back enough to give either QB a chance to find those options.

   Defensively the Browns want to attack the guard center gap with misdirection.  Their massive tackles can get attention and Joe Andruzzi has been a bit slow to pick up the late twist from a linebacker.  Brady needs his pocket to hold in the middle as his effectiveness drops dramatically when forced out of the pocket.  Challenging Koppen or Andruzzi to properly pass off responsibilities can lead to middle pressure which stops the Patriots frequent slow developing runs or pressures Brady.  The Patriots do not make their rushing yards up the middle currently and teams can begin to blitz attack the middle in pursuit of the pressure to make Ken Walter punt more frequently.  

Prediction

   Although this isn't a successful trap game, New England doesn't match up as well as they might like against the Browns.  They must show they can run effectively as they have on several occasions because if forced to pass the Patriots will find the strength of Cleveland's defense.  The special team advantage makes for a dangerous first half in Foxboro but the Patriots hold on long enough to get their defensive pressure to force yet another turnover which gives them the margin of victory.  The Browns offensive line will be too worn down and the game will get away from them on that interception.  New England's offense tacks on a late insurance run to complete the rally and take a kneeling victory.

New England Patriots 23    - Cleveland Browns - 10

Give me your feedback on my message board!

October 19: at Miami Dolphins

Dolphin Official	vs	ESPN Dolphins
Miami Herald		Dolphin Message Board
ESPN Preview	Game Day Weather	NFL Preview

Not Weather, Talent or OJ: Execution Wins in Miami

Game Notes

   The Patriots haven't won in Miami during September or October - Ever!  They've lost the magical fifth straight at this site but most importantly the Patriots have made a recent habit of playing particularly poor in the Miami heat.  Bill Belichick doesn't want to hear about the Miami heat or the stadium or even Florida's Orange Juice, he wants to hear about beating the Dolphins in Miami on Sunday.  These two are currently embroiled in a long battle for the AFC-East bid to the playoffs.  It was the same last year when Miami needed a victory over New England in the season finale to ensure their playoff berth.  New England rallied from an 11 point 4th quarter deficit to take the game in overtime. 

   After dropping the first game to Houston at home Miami has notched four consecutive victories and enjoyed a bye week.  The Patriots have two consecutive victories to equal the Dolphins in the win column at 4 but trail them with a pair of losses.  The knot between these teams may not clear up for some time but this early match will likely be significant come December. 

Injury Report:

   Both teams have significant injuries although there is little question the Patriots are hurint more.  New England has received key support from players working through their injuries.  They will likely need this again if they are to match up to the talented Dolphin line-up.

Opponent Review

   The Dolphins, like the Patriots, are surviving on the strength of their defense.  It is a defense which has been highly ranked for several years and which was significantly improved during the off-season.  The focal point of the defense is Zach Thomas the star middle linebacker who previously would dominate the tackle statistics.  Junior Seau joined his ranks and follows closely behind Thomas in the tackle statistics.  Another new addition in Sammy Knight at strong safety is also paying good dividends.  All this and former Patriot Terrell Buckley strengthens their nickel packages with his ball hawking skills which have yet to be utilized because of the strength of their secondary.

   Miami is similar to Tennessee in that they use fast pass rushing defensive ends anchored by a pair of monstrous 300 pound defensive tackles.  Ogunleye has been more of a surprise than Jason Taylor as his five sacks in five games leads the team and showcases his speed.  The DT position is used to occupy the offensive linemen for the linebackers to clean up the running game while the corners play predominantly shut down man to man as both Patrick Surtain and Sam Madison have such talent.  The results are the league's second best rushing offense although the passing defense has slipped on paper to 29th in part because of team's being forced to pass and in part because of injury earlier in the season.  Teams have tried to run at the smaller defensive ends but the power of the tackles and excellent speed of the linebackers has prevented this tactic.

   Offensively Miami wants to power their way to victory behind the running game of Ricky Williams.  They'll give him all the carries he can handle and possibly more if he's gaining the yards.  In fact it was a reluctance to run him which cost them the previous battle with New England.  On that day he was tearing up New England at a record pace when Miami threw three straight times to give New England the ball and clock enough.  Despite this Williams will see the lion's share of work.  His 3.4 yards/carry are low as teams have stacked against him and relied on the struggling Jay Fiedler to fail.  Fiedler has not excelled during this time but has done enough to keep opponents at bay.  He's got two primary weapons in wide-receiver Chris Chambers and Tight End Randy McMichael.  Both are averaging over 14 yards per reception though Chambers is clearly the primary target.

Our Match-up Weakness

   The Patriots have had a knack for falling behind early to Miami which creates the worst scenario as the speed rush can explode on Tom Brady's comeback attempts.  Things have quickly gone from bad to worse with this scenario and with New England's offense struggling and injured it's a tough time to face a top notch defense.

   The Patriots have been dared to stop the run each week and have prevailed.  This week they will face the best runner thus far in their young season.  He's a rusher whom they've struggled to stop at times and embarrassed at other times but he is a powerful runner which will challenge their depleted defensive middle.  He'd love to face the 3-4 scheme and grind out a long exhausting drive of up the middle runs.  

   In a defensive battle the benefit of the currently more sure-footed Olindo Mare may represent the first time in years a team holds the edge due to Field Goal kicking.  With Adam struggling a bit and Mare on target and with longer range this could easily be the difference in the game.

Our Match-up Strength

   Coaching!  Belichick wants this Dolphin win as much as any game previously because he understands the significance it will have in the final standings.  He knows the Dolphin offense is a bit less dangerous than in year's past and he can shut down it's more limited strength with good schemes.  Meanwhile he very well may find the weakness in the defense which can be exploited enough to yield a close victory.

   New England's defense though maligned has come together in overcoming injury.  They swarm rushers and punish receivers with more ferocity than the entirety of last season excepting perhaps the first game against Pittsburgh.  They have been particularly good in the red-zone and while Miami may move the ball they will be hard pressed to make the big score.

Strategy

   Unless Coach Wannstedt has a mental breakdown he'll throw Ricky Williams at New England behind his big Left Guard, Jamie Nails.  Inside the Tackles with Guards hitting the linebackers to see if Tedy Bruschi, Roman Phifer and Matt Chatham can handle the load for an entire game.  Williams is a load for them alone and when fighting off a guard to do this it will become a greater challenge.  Chambers is speedy but not large making him the secondary threat in this game and more of a decoy.  Randy McMichaels matches up faster than the cover linebackers for New England and has the size to disrupt safety Eugene Wilson's coverage and tackling skills.  When they do go to play action watch out for the talented Tight-end.

   Defensively the Dolphins are confident their corners can challenge any of the Patriot receivers deep threat.  They can thus bring up their safeties to sit on the crossing routes while letting their linebackers reinforce their rushing ends if New England seems determined to test the running game at those ends.  They will expose a deep threat risk which New England has exploited but rarely.  They will, however, shut down Brady's favorite short passing game and likely stifle the running game which has been somewhat better than anticipated.

   New England's offense will try both of the things dictated by the Dolphins.  They will run at the defensive ends with off Tackle plays and pulling guard sweeps.  They will likely target a body on Thomas as this has provided some success in the past and Damien Woody has proven to be an excellent pulling Guard.  Even Joe Andruzzi becomes a pulling force when they run behind the power blocking of Matt Light and Damien Woody on the left side.  One block to the linebacker gives either Faulk, Cloud or possibly Smith the chance to battle the safety for yards.  The entire key is the positioning of those safeties.  Bethel Johnson and David Patten have sufficient deep speed to be a threat.  The question is can Brady get them the ball or come close enough to back off the safety for the run game.  New England has had a mostly good mix to keep the opposition guessing but their theory of keeping the third down manageable is less valuable against the Dolphins talented linebackers shutting down that short passing attack.

   Patriot Defenders would like to count on Ty Law shutting down Chambers so the rest of the team can focus on Ricky Williams.  Unfortunately this puts Randy McMichael in prime position to hurt them.  They'll chip him with a lineman and cover with a linebacker trying to force his block to be pivotal in the run game while slowing him to the pace of their linebackers for passing attacks.  In order to prevent this from being a mismatch they need pressure as Fiedler can be very accurate and dangerous when given time.  He can also make the big play with his legs if left unattended.

Prediction

   Oddsmakers are giving Miami a solid edge based on history and based on the match-up advantages.  The key here is two good defenses likely to play two good games.  The pressure falls on Tom Brady to out-duel Jay Fiedler in the limited opportunities in which they each are given to make a significant play.  Both are slumping and working to break out   Both rely on their intelligence as their primary weapon.  In this instance the difference comes down to the coaching in which New England's edge is much larger and seemingly as motivated as ever before.

New England Patriots 17    - Miami Dolphins 9

Give me your feedback on my message board!

October 12: versus New York Giants

Giant's Official Site	vs.	ESPN Giants
NY Daily News	Weather Report	NY Post - Giants
NFL Preview	Giant Insider	ESPN Preview

Patriots Must Tackle a Tough Foe

Game Notes

   These teams have 6 prior meetings in the regular season and are knotted at 3-3 making this a best of seven series which is appropriate given the time of year.  These aren't the details which win or motivate games.  These teams played in the Preseason with New England notching a decided 26-6 victory in a game which featured an unstoppable Dan Klecko.  The last time the Patriots beat the Giants by 20 in pre-season they went on to win the SuperBowl.  Belichick, however, has never beaten the team for whom he spent 12 years as a coach.  Both teams are in tight Divisional races with little room for picking up another loss. 

Injury Report:

   The Patriots list of injuries grew a bit longer as Antowain Smith joined the ranks having injured his shoulder in the Titans game.  The list of Questionable players remains the longest of note which indicates roughly a 75% chance of playing.  Despite this the Patriots have played very competitive football as the depth is being showcased and steadily improving from the experience.  The Giants will miss Kicker Matt Bryant but have Brett Conway with 7 years of experience to replace him.

Opponent Review

   The New York Giants can explode on offense with a brace of weapons in Tiki Barber, Ike Hilliard, Jeremy Shockey and Amani Toomer.  It seems everyone has the chance to hear Shockey's name.  It is heard nearly as frequently for his play as it is for his off field antics.  The  fact is he's a marvelous talent at Tight End and will demand special attention from the Patriot defenders.  At 6'5" and 255 pounds, he represents a size and speed combination which is similar to Ben Coates.  Hilliard is the speedier receiver while Toomer represents the size at 6'3".  Their 6 and 8 years of experience make them a dangerous tandem enhanced by Shockey's ability to threaten the middle of the field.  All of this opens up even more room for a very dangerous Tiki Barber who is the fourth leading receiver while adding 4.4 yards per carry on the ground.  Kerry Collins clearly has many weapons and also has the arm skills to throw all the passes necessary to use these tools.  His only knock is the potential for throwing interceptions which nearly matches his touchdown tossing.  This was especially clear in their loss to Miami in which his trio of interceptions were a fundamental part of the loss.  Still his accuracy and weapons are enough to make this the sixth best passing attack in the league.  Conversely Barber and the ground game are mired at an average of only 102 yards per game on the ground which ranks 20th in the league.

   Defensively the Giants are last in the league for pass defense.  Part of this is due to playing St. Louis, Dallas and Washington in which passing is a premium but much of it is their own struggle.  Their defensive front 7 is similar to Tennessee in that it features two premier pass-rushing defensive ends, Strahan & Holmes as well as a quality middle linebacker.  Strahan has been the best pass rusher in the league and is a force on the left side of the line.  Their defensive tackle position isn't as large as the Titans but it is a bit more athletic which present a slightly greater challenge to the interior of New England during pass formations.  Both Allen and Peterson are third year corners with good size and speed but the strength of the secondary is probably Omar Stoutmire who is fast enough to help the corners.  Kato Serwanga will come in as a nickel back and can be counted upon to fall once or twice per series although his speed is unquestioned.

Our Match-up Weakness

   Strahan matched up on Tom Ashworth has to be a concern for New England.  Strahan matched up on any of the Patriot linemen is a concern but especially a two-game experienced youth like Ashworth.  Plenty of teams have pass rushers from the right side of the defensive line but this is one of the few to have such top notch talent effectively at both sides.  Last week's Carter-Kearse experience will help but no doubt this is an edge for the Giants.

   Shockey is a great challenge for the Patriots Secondary.  He attacks a beleaguered group of linebackers or an under-sized secondary.  He is difficult to tackle and even the big hits of Rodney Harrison may jolt him but leave him on his feet to race for more yardage.  This is the most crucial match for New England's victory chances.

   Asante Samuels and Eugene Wilson have both struggled to handle the tall receivers and they'll have a battle with Toomer who likes to go deep and use his size much like the Titans exploited last week.  After a bit of film study this weakness will be even more highlighted by the Giants Coaching staff.

Our Match-up Strength

   Kerry Collins can be forced into mistakes and New England has a defense which can encourage this as they show so many formations which shift into a variety of actual coverages.  They also have shown an ability to pressure the Quarterback (leading the AFC in sacks) which will be of considerable benefit in forcing these mistakes.  Collins ability to correctly read the schemes and find the proper options is pivotal to avoid the turnovers which could cost his team the game.

   The Giants are last in the league in passing defense.  This will be challenged as New England has a fair arsenal which challenges the depth of opposing corners.  They like to run a continual 3 wide receiver which gives them a target for their ground game as well as matches a generally high quality receiver against a lesser quality defensive back.  Brady spreads the ball around as much as any quarterback in the league and if Brown/Branch/Patten are all on the field it's a challenge to match up to them and not lose the tight end or back.  New York will not likely be enhancing their pass defense this week..

   While the Giants did shut down a weary Ricky Williams, they will face the same threat Tennessee and much of the football world overlooked last week.  New England's current blend of Offensive Linemen wants to play a physical running style which attacks speed end rushers.  Smith and Cloud both had excellent outings against precisely this style of defense and may take advantage of the softened defense which must eye the achilles heel passing defense a bit more than they might prefer.  

Strategy

   New England should offensively use the keys to their Titan victory by using a power running attack which fends off the pass rush and let's their line challenge the opposition in a physical battle.  Smith seemed very decisive in hitting his holes with a north-south fury.  His counterpart used more speed and quick moves to explode even more potently.  It's small wonder the passing game opened up a bit more as the run game dominated the clock and the game.  Play action and the deep ball threat became far more real with the arrival of this running attack.  While this is generally the case for any team, it is especially true when facing slightly undersized defensive tackles and over-zealous pass rushers.

   Defensively New England wants to get Kerry Collins rattled.  They know he has many weapons and the poise to use them if he isn't harrassed and confused.  The biggest threat in this situation is Jeremy Shockey.  So while they drop into a variety of zones and man looks, they must pressure the quarterback and most importantly of all, tackle cleanly.  Any of their receivers are a threat to break away from a tackle and make a big play thus the sloppy tackling which made an occasional appearance last week must be the emphasis of the defense this week.  

   Nobody has put a quality run threat to New England's defense.  Their 7th ranked run defense has been well earned but it has come at the expense of the short passing game.  The Giants must attack with this ground game first.  Let Barber challenge the Patriots with off-tackle play and counters so that his skill will draw the attention of the linebackers.  Regularly disrupt New England's patterns by hitting Shockey in their midst.  This will steadily isolate the corners more and more leaving the opportunity to give the jump ball to Toomey when he matches up against Samuels or Wilson.  All the while returning to truly test the run defense which has the gaping hole created by Washington, Johnson and Vrabel's departure.

   Defensively the Giants want to force New England into throwing the ball on first or second down.  The Patriots have made a living of run, run pass in which they give Brady a short option on that third down.  Over-emphasizing the run on the early downs can force New England into obvious passing situations which will favor their defensive pass pressure.  When New England gains more than six yards on first down they view it as prime passing time so the first down is especially critical to have a run defense prepared.  New England rarely runs counters so the 12 year veteran middle-linebacker must see the Guard pull and get himself out front to cut off the outside runs.  Forcing New England into passing situations increases their chance of failure or turnover.  

Prediction

   The weather promises a bit of a slippery element for the game.  This increases the chance of turnovers on a day when discipline and turnover control will likely give the deciding margin of victory.  Teams have started strong and long drives against New England this year and New York is likely to be no exception notching the first touchdown early.  Once the offense starts wearing on the Giant defenders the game will become a Field Goal battle.  Although Adam has struggled he gives an early change to that trend.  Low scoring first halves have opened into second half air battles.  In an air battle the Giants are no winners this season.

New England Patriots 27    - New York Giants 19

Give me your feedback on my message board!

October 5: versus Tennessee Titans

Titans Official	vs	ESPN Titans
NFL Preview	Foxboro Weather	ESPN Preview

Remember the Titans: Much Needed Vengeance

Game Notes

   The 3-1 Titans come into Foxboro to face the 2-2 Patriots yet most view this as Goliath pausing briefly to step on a battered and bruised David.  This is in large part due to the last week's performances in which the Titans embarrassed the Steelers 30-13 on the strength of McNair's remarkably efficient performance and a strong defense.  Meanwhile the undermanned Patriots were expected to lose to the Redskins yet somehow seemed to have earned less respect for having managed to let the game barely slip through their fingers despite the injuries and four turnovers.  Perhaps the Patriot detractors are recalling last year's marquee match in which the teams battled for the Playoff position.  Tennessee entirely dominated New England far more than the 24-7 score indicated.  Certainly there are many reasons to believe in the prowess of the Titans and to suspect superiority.  The league reviews tend towards over-reactionary responses and these teams are closer than many might suspect.  There is a high potential for playoff standings to have some significant effect from this game as they did last season.  So New England fans must for now only hope the Patriots do Remember the Titans and plan a bit of vengeance for this week's game.

Injury Report:

   The injury card is being played very heavily in New England.  Rightly so as they are a team beleaguered but it should be noted the worse of the injuries have been on defense and upon the offensive line.  Both units played exceptionally well in the last game and may be making a case for the depth of talent and the strength of the Coaching Staff game plans.

Opponent Review

   The Titans are thriving on the performance of Steve McNair.  He holds the highest QB rating for a player with more than 40 pass attempts.  He has completed an impressive 69.4% of his passes with 8 touchdowns and only a single interception.  He is spreading the ball around very well which is a sure sign he is comfortable with his offense and confident in his options.  Five players have caught more than 100 yards, four players have caught double digit receptions and ten players have caught passes.  McNair remains very capable of gaining yards with his tough running style but has only needed to do such 8 times this season.  He is in full control of this offense and will be a tremendous threat.  No doubt Rush Limbaugh has some commentary regarding McNair's performance not being valid but it should be quite clear McNair's talent is as real as the numbers indicate.

   Speaking of Rush (preferably the football term), Eddie George and the Tennessee run offense have vanished while McNair has somehow managed to sustain his efficiency.  They are the third worst rushing offense in the league averaging an anemic 68.5 yards per game.  George has certainly seemed to have lost a step and his back-ups have faired little better.  The line was once known for winning the battle at the line of scrimmage but now has shifted to a stronger pass blocking crew.

   Defensively the Titans have a fearsome offensive line with excellent speed rushing ends in Jevon "The Freak" Kearse and Kevin Carter who have earned 2.5 and 3 sacks respectively.  They are a disruptive force without question and are given freedom by the monstrous defensive Tackles Albert Haynesworth at 320 pounds and Robaire Smith at 310.  It is not surprising they are the third best at defending the run allowing only 63 yards in each game.  Outside linebacker Keith Bulluck is fast and explosive which is why he leads the team in tackles.  Rocky Boiman in his first game replacing the injured Pete Sirmon was nearly the player of the game with his sack for a safety and interception for a touchdown.  

   Both Samari Rolle and Andre Dyson have excellent speed on the corner but their safety support isn't as strong as it has been in previous years.  Their pass defense drops to 11th in the league but is weaker still in it's lacking quality depth for multiple wide receiver formations.  They rely on the pressure of their defensive front to make their pass defense stronger.

Our Match-up Weakness

   Tennessee does not allow rushing yards easily and New England struggles with their rushing attack.  Worse still, Tennessee is especially good at shutting down the outside runs which New England has favored.  The speed rushing Defensive Ends do not give up room to run on their way towards the opposing Quarterback.  Expect a tough challenge for New England to gain yards.

   McNair is efficient and New England's schemes do create opening and rely on the opposition to make enough mistakes to halt drives.  High efficiency Quarterbacks can attack this scheme with great success and the Titans are precisely this type of team.  More to their advantage is the great size of their receivers which have thus far proven a challenge for the young New England Secondary.  Ty Law has held his own but Tyrone Poole and Asante Samuels will be especially challenged by this group.

   A strong pass pressure defense isn't the cure Tom Brady needs for his highly suspect quick decision process.  Carter and Kearse know New England relies too heavily on the pass and will be giving him the pressure which could make his day disastrously long if he doesn't return to the clear grasp of the systems he showed in his previous two years as the mainstay in New England.

Our Match-up Strength

   New England's short passing game is their strength and the Titans do not have the linebacker and safety strength which is more commonly the greatest problem for the quick hitting pass attack.  Brown, Branch, Givens, Johnson and even Patten if he emerges are the elusive receivers which most challenge a defense geared to stop longer passes and to shut down receiver tandems not quintuplets!

   New England has benefited from facing some of the weaker rushing attacks in the league this season.  Tennessee fits this mold and it is not unreasonable to expect the defense may again hold the ground attack in check which gives Belichick's schemes a chance to concentrate on the passing threat.  This could be the most decisive edge in this game beyond the emotional vengeance which should make the lines a battle of toughness on which New England places a high value this week.

Strategy

   New England's run defense has received minimal tests at best.  The softening of the middle of the defense remains a slight question.  George may have slowed a step but he remains capable of using his size advantage to punish New England's defenders and give the Titans control of the game clock.  Each successful run only enhances the efficiency of Steve McNair who will happily keep his throws under 20 in a game if it leads to his team winning.  George and Holcomb should give New England their first real ground defense with play action attacking the worst cover linebacker as often as possible.  That linebacker is anyone not named Bruschi or Phifer.  This will perhaps be the best test of Dan Klecko's ability to play linebacker in this league - an inconclusive test last week with several negative implications.

   Defensively the Titans want to hit Tom Brady early and often.  All of his career has shown the potential to be rattled after a few early hits.  Sending the early blitz while pressing the smaller New England receivers should be more than New England's rag-tag offensive line can handle.  Though the line stood tall last week they are likely to see a stronger blitz presence this week and with more talented linemen to make the challenge more lethal.

   New England would love to have a power running game and may test running at the defensive ends deliberately and away from Keith Bullock.  They simply haven't shown the tools for this thus far and the test will likely not last long.  They will keep their attempt to shorten their third down conversion distance with a healthy dose of runs on first and second downs but the more they fail the quicker the short slant and wide receiver screens will become a part of their attack.

   Defensively New England needs their linemen to not over-pursue.  They want pressure but McNair can scramble so the pressure cannot come with the creation of lanes.  They need Richard Seymour to show a bit of the talent he holds in his big frame and collapse the pocket from the inside more than the outside.  Their blitz schemes must be well disguised to force McNair into bad throws by misreading the coverages.  He has yet to be well tested on these but last season tore New England apart with his legs each time their blitz gave him a lane.

Prediction

   There is a reason Tennessee is heavily favored, they are talented and playing well while New England has had inconsistent play.  Despite this New England's defense has been the strength forgoing any desire to accept the injury excuse.  After the week 1 aberration,  this defense has been very stingy.  The question is can they also become point producers?  In Philadelphia they did and the result was a solid victory.  Can they create more turnovers than their offense surrenders?  With Brady seemingly understanding he may be trying to force to much and must trust the system and his defense, expect the New England turnovers to vanish this week.

   Meanwhile the lines are set for a 15 round knock-out match in which toughness will be a matter for pride on both sides.  Tennessee is poised to overlook the tenacity this Patriot team has shown on the lines and this is New England's hope for securing a victory.  Emotion surges quickly in this game and New England capitalizes on this for a surprising victory.

New England Patriots 27    - Tennessee Titans 13

Give me your feedback on my message board!

September 28 at Washington Redskins

Redskin's Official Site	vs.	ESPN Redskins
Opposition Fan Site	Weather Report	Opposition Message Board
NFL Preview	Washington Post	ESPN Preview

X vs O as Belichick and Spurrier Battle 

Game Notes

   There are two points being billed as significant in this game.  The much bantered Injury Debacle going on in Foxboro these days is certainly the more popular topic as the Patriots list 10 players on their injury report without counting the season loss of Rosevelt Colvin or the current IR status of  three offensive lineman: Mike Compton, Kenyatta Jones and Stephen Neal.  Certainly there is much reason to notice the injuries which weigh far more heavily on the New England Patriots yet the Patriots themselves are talking the right game with their focus entirely forward to their schemes and formations with spoken confidence in their replacements.  Perhaps with good reason as the replacements held up well against the Jets last week and these same replacements played very well against the Redskins in a preseason tilt.  

   The second factor is the notion of Steve Spurrier and his highly touted offensive skills bringing his number one ranked offensive unit to face the Defensive Genius of Bill Belichick and his walking wounded schemes of confusion.  The new Coach and his "Fun n Gun" seemingly have all the advantages as he squares off against a long term defensive stalwart but the Patriots seem to always surprise when faced with an 'impossible' game.

   Game history is barely a factor as pre-season is as poor an indication as the prior regular season meetings of these teams.  They've battled six times in NFL history with Washington holding a solid 5-1 edge including 5 straight.  However, the last of these was 7 years prior in 1996 and is the only game for which any current players were on their respective rosters!  There is history as Washington has raided the Jets' roster with nearly the same enthusiasm as the border war days of New England and New York.  Belichick has some familiarity with the players involved and recent Redskin signee Wilbert Brown adds depth to a depleted Offensive Line but also provides some inside information on the offensive line responsibility reads from Washington's perspective.  Given the need to pressure Ramsey this may give Belichick the tool he needs to overcome some injury adversity with schemes.

Injury Report:

Our Match-up Weakness

   The list is very long but the nature of them may prove to ultimately play to the Patriots advantage.  Ted "Mount" Washington was perhaps the most significant key to the New England Defense.  Ted Johnson was the run stuffing specialist of the linebackers.  THe absence of both creates a hole in the run defense which may be sized similar to last year when teams made far too much progress up the middle and on the ground.  The entire middle of their offensive line is powerful and athletic while running back Trung Canidate has the speedy and slashing style to exploit their athleticism.  If the Redskins can find a way to play power running they make it a long day on the depleted front 7 of the Patriots.  Worse still the Redskins actually use Ladell Betts and his battering ram style more frequently than Canidate and this could be the most serious mismatch on the field.

   Laveranues Coles has logged a 100 yard receiving effort in each of the season's three games.  His blazing speed and excellent misdirection are challenging for a skilled and healthy veteran.  The Patriots are more likely looking at an injured Veteran (Ty Law) or an untested rookie (Asante Samuels) as spending a bit too much time worrying about Coles.

   Defensively the Redskins stellar linebacking corps may be the fastest in the league and this is particularly effective in hampering New England's prime modes of attack: short passes and outside runs.  Trotter and Arrington have as much talent and speed as any linebacker duo in the league.  Similar to Buffalo's handling of the Patriot offense, this tandem along with Jesse Armstead match up very well to punish the short routes and capture the outside runs in the backfield.

Our Match-up Strength

   The Patriots defense relies on masking schemes to confuse Quarterbacks.  The system run by Spurrier is confusing enough such that the addition of Belichick's masking will be a great challenge to the inexperienced Ramsey.  Getting an inside view of the O-line reads will only serve to augment Belichick's ability to devise a means to pressure Ramsey much as they did in the preseason.

   The Redskin defensive line has not managed to put heavy pressure on a Quarterback yet this season.  Three of their five team sacks have come from blitzing linebackers and this lack of pressure may be precisely the advantage Tom Brady needs to find his open read.  The use of the short game discourages the blitzing linebackers as an additional perk in this match.

   While both teams have had some discipline problems with